The Chinese International Container Liner Fares Research After The Financial Crisis

Chinese container liner shipping have experienced a rapid growth from initial the year of 1986.And now our country become more and more strong in the area of international container liner shipping. Container liner shipping market is a small market of international trade ,so it was influence by the market of international trade seriously . The main manifestation is that the container liner freight rate will fluctuates with the international trade increase or decrease. In order to understand the container liner market better and tariff situation, this paper analyzes the container liner market and the influence factors of tariffs.And then learn the relations of each affecting factor which influence the container liner shipping prices , according to which construct container liner freight rate price simulation model .This thesis research China international container liner fares by the method of system dynamics. First, on the basis of reading literature ,we find that fare composition,demand and supply, transportation cost, government factors are the main factors affect ing container liner shipping prices .Later this thesis analyzes the present situation of container liner market of China- Europe routes, then according to the China- Europe of container liner market make quantitative description, establish the system dynamics simulation model. Then input the historical data of central European courses container liner fares to computer simulation and to test its validity. Finally through input forecast data and according to the model, the price of 2011-2020 is simulated in order to understand container liner shipping prices condition.The main porpurse of this thesis is that provide the reference for shipping enterprise .Container liner freight rate is influenced by container liner shipping market ,with the influence of financial crisis recession , the world is coming to after the financial crisis, when container liner freight rate era has itsbasic characteristics such as dynamic, seasonal, complexity, and also has its own characteristic.Along with the world economic recovery, transportation cost especially your fuel will rise and container trade will increase, so the 2 years after 2011, container liner freight rate will be rising,and in 2012 it is about to a high wave. As economic growth speed after slowing the growth and capacity supply, freight rate will drop and in 2014 to troughs around; Then with the capacity to liner companies adjust and further economic development in 2016, about China international container liner freight rate will again reached a little wave, so silmultaneous. Although there will be the lowlands, but among after the financial crisis, container liner freight rate era in general are rising.