A Study On The Grain Security Of Hubei Province Based On The Pressure Index Of Cultivated Land

Hubei Province as one of the ten grain production bases of China,it has a stable supply ability of grain.The production is not only to meet the demand of Hubei Province, but also to sell to other provinces.So the food security of Hubei Province has a pivotal status in the national food security.But owing to some factor's influence,the total quantity and the average of grain production of Hubei Province drops year by year.It has a disadvantageous influence to the grain security of Hubei Province and China.It is necessary to analysis the grain production situation of Hubei Province and proposes some countermeasures.This article adopts the model of the minimum area per capita and the model of the pressure index of cultivated land to analysis the state of grain security in Hubei Province. These two models are defined by Pro.Cai Yunlong of Peiking University.Through analysis all factors of the model of the pressure index of cultivated land,this paper studies various essential factors between the food security influence factors.From this, we can induce the influence rule of various factors.Through the analysis,we can draw the following conclusion:(1) The minimum area per capita and the actual area per capita of Hubei Province are both decreased during 1996 to 2006.The pressure index of cultivated land(K) maintains at the level of K=1.It shows that:the actual area per capita equal to the minimum area per capita,we must prevent the run off of cultivated land;we also should rationally guide the usage transfer of cultivated land under the circumstance of improving the input of material and the productivity;the present state of grain security in Hubei Province is safe.(2) According to the prediction of correlation factors of the pressure index of cultivated land and the computing formula,we can know that:1) under the consumption level of the type of adequate and abundance,the pressure index of cultivated land of Hubei Province is K＜1 both in 2015 and 2020;2) under the consumption level of the type of well-off,the pressure index of cultivated land of Hubei Province is K＜1 and K＞1 respectively in 2015 and 2020;3) under the consumption level of the type of wealthy, the pressure index of cultivated land of Hubei Province is K＞1 both in 2015 and 2020. In this state,the cultivated land is overload;the grain security is not safe.We must buy some grain from other provinces to fulfill food self-support.Meanwhile,we must enhance the protection;the quantity control and the quality improve of cultivated land.At last,according to the present state and the future 20 years state of grain security, we put forward some countermeasures to guaranty the grain security of Hubei Province.