Research On The Influence Of Agricultural Natural Diaster On The Comprehensive Ability Of Food Production In Hunan Province

Food safty is the most important event of the nation. Protecting and improving the comprehensive ability of food production is the key to the food security.The comprehensive ability of crop production is influenced by many factors, which can be classified into two sorts. The input factors include land, capital, labor, science and technology, and the effect factors include government policies,agricultural structure, natural climate,etc.As one of the effect sorts,Agricultural natural disaster has very bad influence and serious threat on the comprehensive ability of food production.So it's necessary to do an in depth analysis of influencing mechanism of agricultural natural disaster on the comprehensive ability of food production, format a scientific disaster loss model, provide some reference to mitigation hazard decision department.To attain this goal, the status of the food comprehensive produce ability is summarized and the existing theories and methods are reviewed in this paper, the concept and connotation of the comprehensive ability of food production were expounded,then a new a conceptual model is put forward .According to different levels of the conceptual model, the article firstly analyzes the influence of agricultural natural disaster on food production through yield and grain acreage,then,analyzes the influence of agricultural natural disaster on factor of production.Based on the theoretical analysis, a new method is presented in the paper, An agricultural natural disaster loss to the food assessment model is established.The model firstly estimates the food output by GM (1,1) algorithm, then the food damage rate can be calculated by comparing it to the actually food output . On the above basis, according to the statistic data time series of historical disaster losses and food productions and by using the model, the paper took the year of 1978-2009 in Hunan Province for a demonstration analysis, by which the effectiveness and feasibility of the model are verified .then, the agricultural natural disaster and the comprehensive ability of food production of Hunan Province was analyzed and diagnosed by using GRA (gray relations analysis). The results indicate that agricultural natural disater is highly correlated with effective irrigation area and commissariat sows an area. Especially the floods and droughts .cause the biggest lost.At last this paper puts forward some idiographic countermeasures and advices to improve disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities and increase comprehensive grain production ability .of Hunan Province by guarding against of disaster and protecting food production factors.