Study Of Response Pattern Of Agricultural Restructurting Which Based On Farmer Optimization

This thesis use a typical agricultural county in southern Xinjiang– Moyu County as an example, based on analysis the current situation of agricultural development of Moyu County, first the paper constructed the variable vector autoregressive ( VAR) model by using per capita income of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery production, empirical analysis the relationship between impulse response function of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries of Moyu County and per capita income of the farmers; Second, through field research, questionnaires, and the combination of household interviews, and using the contingency table Testing and quantitative analysis to explore the Moyu County "Eleventh Five-Year" structural adjustment of agriculture on the economic impact of farmers and farmers respond to the adjustment of agricultural structure and its influence factors to different regions (north, middle, south) and different types (species, livestock, forestry) household behavior of the selected regularity of the factors.The results show that: (1) during the "Eleventh Five-Year" period, the agricultural structure of Moyu County has changed, the proportion of total agricultural farming declined, the increasing proportion of animal husbandry and forestry; farming is the main source of income of the farmers, farming income is 353 yuan increasing to 432 yuan from the "Eleventh Five-Year", the composition of per capita income of farmers, horticulture and animal husbandry has decreased respectively from 73% to 44%, from 10.4% rise 24.3%, from 16.7% to rise to 32%; forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry, the proportion of irrational, planting the internal structure is not rational. (2) regional differences, different types and farmers have the capital level of difference, it is households of agricultural structure adjustment of behavioral responses to the significant factors; regional differences and technical services, training, policy support was significantly affected farmers on the agricultural structure adjustment attitude; farmers traditionally cultivation and food production and the concept of change is the implementation of subsidies for the implementation of policies of structural adjustment policies of the pre-agricultural conditions.Analysis of agricultural main macro development of Moyu County, the results showed: (1) the input-output agriculture of Moyu County is a little bit low, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries is relatively low, the slow development of agricultural industrialization, agricultural products lack the competitiveness; (2) cultivated land resources limited and gradual increase in production and ecological stress; (3) shortage of water resources, water conservancy facilities still need to perfect, water-saving techniques need upgrading; (4) forest crop intercropping cause some pressure on food security; (5) lack of subsequent processing of agricultural products, the low level of industrialization of agriculture; (6) agricultural management and technical support are also to be improved.