Research In Shanghai Energy Forecast Model And Energy Efficiency Evaluation Indicators System

This paper has a research in domestic and international energy forecast model and energy efficiency evaluation indicators system. It analyzes the defects of the existing forecast model and energy efficiency evaluation indicators system. On this basis, combined with Shanghai energy demand and situation, it researches Shanghai energy forecast model and its influencing factors, analyzing Shanghai energy efficiency evaluation indicators.It optimally establishes a Multi-factor energy forecast model and first proposes the energy efficiency evaluation indicators system.In the part of forecast model, this paper considers Shanghai's economic development, population growth, industrial structure, energy prices, SO2 emission,using multi-factor linear regression method and Eview5.0 establish a c ointegration model of Shanghai energy forecast, which forecasts Shanghai's energy demand from 2011 to 2030.In the part of energy efficiency evaluation, this paper analyzes 20 factors that affects Shanghai's energy efficiency, using neural network methods and Superdecision establish a ANP evaluation model of Shanghai energy efficiency evaluation,which evaluates Shanghai's energy efficiency from 2005 to 2010.At the same time, this paper proposes the policy outlook of Shanghai's energy development and the methods to improve the Shanghai's energy efficiency. This research will help to identify and solve the tendency problem of Shanghai's energy development, protecting Shanghai's energy security. It will help to make scientific analysis and evaluation of Shanghai's energy supply,demand and use, making reasonable judgment and forecasting of Shanghai's energy efficiency and ecological security. It will help the government to have better energy macro-management, policy decision-making and development planning. It will help to the rich of Shanghai's low-carbon city development theory.