Research On The Supply And Demand Of Real Estate Market In Chengdu City Based On Disequilibrium Theory

The central committee and the local authority have released a series of regu-lation policy about the real estate covering housing market, the land market and the finance credit market in 2010 so that inhibit excessive investmented and spe-culative purchase, prevent the house price excessively quickly rise, maintain the real estate market develops healthy and steadily. From the beginning of the year's 78 central enterprise exiting real estate market and the promulgation of "central 11", real estate regulation which was known as the severest policy in history began the prologue, and the real estate market faced aspect of reshuffling.Under this background, this article takes main body of market mecha-nism—supply and demand mechanism as the breakthrough point, uses massive statistical data and the market investigation and study information to launch the research on the operational of Chengdu real estate market.In view of questions about real estate market's operating law, cyclical fluctua-tion, macroeconomic regulation and control and so on, our country scholars have obtained many research results based on the general equilibrium theory. The gen-eral equilibrium theory supposes the supply, demand and price of all commodities, production factors in the society contact each other and interact with each other. It takes the marginal utility value as the foundation, embarks from the microscopic economic subject's behavior, investigates the price decision question when all commodity markets'supplies and the demand simultaneously achieve balanced. This theory proposes a series of strict supposition premise, points out that as long as the market is perfect, the price is full elasticity, the market will clear out auto-matically, and the supply and demand will realize balanced voluntarily.However, the movement of social economy which are very complex often cannot satisfy these conditions. So the non-Walrasian equilibrium theory proposes supposition condition which are closer to the economic reality:1st, generalized equilibrium; 2nd, price rigidity; 3rd, quantity adjustment and dual deci- sions-making; 4th, income restraint; 5th, exchange of unbalanced price. The non-Walrasian equilibrium theory pointed out that balance.is only the one perfect condition of the market economy, disequilibrium is the most common condition. But disequilibrium means the waste of economic resource and social welfare's re-duction, therefore the government should display its function of macroeconomic regulation and control, and join up market regulation described as "cannot see hand" to fall the market non-balanced degree to most lowers and raises the market operating efficiency.As one of three leading investment strengths, the real estate profession in Chengdu is playing the pivotal role in the Chengdu economic development and the city and countryside integration process. However, if we analyze the previous Chengdu real estate market's market transaction data you will discover that the market supply and demand is not equal, and present the varying Non-balanced de-gree at the different stage. The real estate market cannot clear out at most of the time, it always exists excess supplies or excess demand, and the price has coher-ency so as to it cannot adjust the market demand and supply capacity to the equi-librium state effectively. Obviously, under the theory frame of general equilibrium, we cannot make explanation for these phenomena in the economic significance. Therefore, this paper uses the mature non-Walrasian equilibrium theory to conduct the research of supply and demand situation in Chengdu real estate market.At present, there are quite many thorough empirical study about the real es-tate market and a few qualitative investigation literature based on the non-Walrasian equilibrium theory. This paper has made the non-balanced analysis separately about the Chengdu housing market between 1991to 2010 year as well as office housing market, commercial housing market from 1995 until now in the predecessor research results foundation using the utilization statistical data survey data. It has established the housing market non-balanced econometric model, and the effective demand equation chosen house price, the township dwellers average per person may control the income, the non-agricultural population to account for the proportion to take the explanatory variable, the effective supply equation select the housing development investment cost, the house price to take the explanatory variable, the macroscopic market polymerization equation has used the hyperbolic linear polymerization equation. And used non-even weights and measures this tar- get to analyze the housing market different period supply and demand unbalanced situation and the reason unified the historical data. In the real estate market struc-ture, the office houses, the commercial houses, the other have probably occupied 1/3 market share with the room. The developer regarding the office houses, the commercial houses is more nimble with the room business model, may sell, have (only rents does not sell) or the sale and rental develops simultaneously, but may also sell according to the market conditions sublets or rents the resale. At present the average proportion of the hold type property for the office houses, commercial houses is about 10%. A lot of factors affecting the effective supply and demand quantity of this kind of property can not to be able to quantitative analysis, more-over the statistical data is incomplete, therefore this paper no longer carries on the non-equilibrium model to these two kind of real estate market, and only acts ac-cording to the market data which can be collected from targets of development and investment situation, supply and sales compared to, vacancy rate to obtain, to ana-lyze its supply and demand to be whether balanced.At last this paper synthesis utilizes the non-Walrasian equilibrium theory and the quantitative analysis result so as to put forward macroeconomic regulation and control proposal separately in view of the questions which appeared in the non-even running process of the housing market,the office housing market, the commercial housing market. The author expect the study result can provide refer-ence for the participation main body of government, housing development enter-prise, consumer e.t. to understand change rules about the supply and demand of real estate market, the influencing factor, the trend of development, thus provide policy-making basis for their market transaction behavior.