Research On The Supply And Demand Of Real Estate Market In Lanzhou City Based On Disequilibrium Theory

In2012, with a series of regulation policy about the real estatecovering housing market released by the central committee and localauthority, the Lanzhou City real estate market go ahead in a wait-and-seeatmosphere; In2012, there are huge adjustments, accompanied with manyreal estate enterprise turn to other fields; In2012, the Yellow Riverlandscape is more beautiful, while the business opportunities are alsoincreasing; In2012, there’re more and more people and car in Lanzhou,behind the bustling, the opportunities and risks are both exist.Under this background, this article takes main body of marketmechanism—supply and demand mechanism as the breakthrough point,uses massive statistics data and the market investigation and studyinformation to launch the research on the operational of Lanzhou realestate market.In view of questions about real estate market’s operating law,cyclical fluctuation, macroeconomic regulation and control and so on, ourcountry scholars have obtained many research results based on thegeneral equilibrium theory. Walrasian equilibrium describes an idealcondition in the economic movement, and it raises a series of stricthypothesis. The theory proposes a series of strict supposition premise,points out that the price is full elasticity, the market will clear outautomatically, and the supply and demand will realize balancedvoluntarily.However, the movement of social economy, especially in the realestate market, the non-Walrasian equilibrium theory proposes suppositioncondition which are closer to the economic reality:1st, generalizedequilibrium;2nd, price rigidity;3rd, quantity adjustment and dual decision-making;4th, income restraint;5th, exchange of unbalanced price.The disequilibrium means the waste of economic resource and socialwelfare’s reduction, therefore the government should display its functionof macroeconomic regulation and control to fall the market non-balanceddegree to most lowers and raises the market operating efficiency.At present, there are many literatures about the Lanzhou real estatemarket, which are based on the equilibrium theory, and only few based onthe non-Warlrasian equilibrium theory. On the predecessors’ researchresults foundation, the paper has made the non-balanced analysisseparately about the Lanzhou housing market between1998to2011aswell as office housing market and commercial housing market. It hasestablished the housing market non-balanced econometric model, and theeffective demand equation chose the Per capita disposable income ofurban residents, the house price and the non-agricultural population as theindependent variables; the supply equation select the GDP, the houseprice and the Urban real estate development and investment as theindependent variables. The macroscopic market polymerization equationhas used the hyperbolic linear polymerization equation. According to theindex of non-equilibrium degree and historical data, the paper has drewconclusions of the imbalance between the supply and demand for thedifferent stages in the Lanzhou real estate market.At last this paper make comprehensive use of the non-Warlrasianequilibrium theory and the quantitative analysis result to put forwardmacroeconomic regulation and control proposal separately in view of thequestions which appeared in the office housing market and thecommercial housing market. The author expect the study result canprovide reference for the participation main body of government, housingdevelopment enterprise, consumer e.t. to understand change rules about the supply and demand of real estate market, the influencing factor, thetrend of development, thus provide decision-making basis for theirmarket transaction behavior.