Structure Analysis Of China's Primary Energy Supply

Since the reforming and opening of China, our energy industry has obtained a remarkable achievement in the past thirty years. The total output of China` s primary energy has increased to the 2.6 billion tons in 2008 from 0.628 billion tons in 1978. China is now the third countries after American and Russia in the world for energy yield and top country for energy consumption. With the development of our country, the energy production is insufficient for energy demands. An essential problem is its dependency on imports which is threat to the safe of China's energy. Optimization and structural readjustment of energy industry is essential for energy strategy in the future.Firstly, the basic classification of energy has been defined in the dissertation. It introduces a conception of primary energy and gives a general review about energy industry policies at different stages, and summarizes its energy structure from 1978 to 2008. Secondly, to start with energy resources endowment characteristics and its distribution analyses our primary energy supply state, including coal, oil, nature gas, nuclear and new energy. This dissertation establishes energy output equation to express equilibrium relations and studies the real factors that are influenced the energy structure. Based on this conclusion, it analyses deep-seated reasons affecting energy structure using structure decomposition analysis model. From the aspects of the contradiction of energy supply and demand, environmental impact, it points out the shortcomings of energy structure. Thirdly, this dissertation forecasts the future and equilibrium supply structure of China's primary energy by using Markov matrix. Finally, it proposes some advice about the structure optimization in the light of conclusion before.This dissertation analyses the factors affecting the structure of China's energy industry using SDA modal based on the compared IO table and forecasts energy supply using Markov Matrix. The work may offer some reference and gist for department research on the structure of China's energy industry.