The Opportunity Research Of Export-Oriented Local Manufacturing Enterprises Upgrade In Uncertainty Environment

A large number of global manufacturing shifts to China provide an unprecedented development opportunity to our export-oriented local manufacturing enterprises. At the same time many domestic enterprises are embedded the global value chain leads by multinational corporations, which leads them loss the power of further rise in the GVC. Although the academic community in the country has a lot of research in the field of getting rid the restrictions of multinational companies, upgrading the enterprises, they mainly focus on analyzing the problem from the qualitative aspect to investigate the GVC governance or enterprise upgrade path. This article is an attempt from quantitative perspective to think the effect taking by uncertainty on business investment decisions, which also help business decision-makers to better grasp opportunities to upgrade.This paper is built on the domestic and foreign scholars'research results, which introduce the idea of option game into the upgrade of production-oriented foreign trade enterprises. In the first half, article mainly elaborate around the GVC and the difficulties issue from traditional manufacturing enterprises'upgrade courses, and on this basis, tentatively into the timing of enterprises'upgrade. In the following pages which, by focusing on the introduction of option game ideas, present the important reality to local production and foreign trade enterprises, to build a model based on uncertain environment. Model emphasis analysis enterprises'upgrade threshold. By contrasting the critical value before and after the upgrade threshold, we could list the balance of corporate investment strategies and find the Nash equilibrium.Research innovation:This article links the global value chain and micro-level enterprises to upgrade two theories closely, that believe enterprises upgrade is the micro-basis of industrial upgrade. In addition, this paper avoids the traditional OEM business, but from a more general level to defines a new conception:export-oriented local manufacturing enterprises. Export-oriented local manufacturing, enterprises are different from the previous manufacturing and OEM business; it is between the ranges of the two conceptions. However, with Chinese export productions occupy a pivotal position in the world, the export-oriented local manufacturing enterprises are better than the first two of China's manufacturing enterprises to reflect Chinese development status. Finally, this paper focuses on how to apply game theory to help guidance to make upgrade decisions for export-oriented local manufacturing enterprises. In reality, most industries are in monopolistic competition environment, each of them has many enterprises vie each other. This article uses the traditional option game research methods, which adopt a duopoly model to simplify the real environment and, based on the strength of the duopoly situation will study, we divided the research into equal strength situation and non-equal strength situation.