The Research On The Countermeasures And Affecting Factors Of Developing Low-Carbon Economy In Jiangsu Province

With the global climate continuing to warm, more and more people are concerned with the environmental issues. Under the background, low-carbon economy was quickly recognized and implemented by many countries as a new model of economic development. Low-carbon economy is a effective means for solving the problem of global warming as well as an important path to implement the sustainable economic development for the world's countries. However, because of the different situation of different countries and regions, the affecting factors of developing low-carbon economic are not the same. The purpose of this dissertation is to seek the main affecting factors developing low-carbon economy of Jiangsu Province, and analyze the different effects of them. Based on the analysis, the paper further analyzes the strategies and measures for developing low-carbon economy in Jiangsu Province.This paper analyzes the carbon emission factors of Jiangsu Province through the "3E" systems theory model and LMDI model. First, the paper use the least squares regression (OLS) and ADF test to the energy, the economy as the main explanatory variables, and it analyze the long-term relationship among carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth, during the years of 1995-2009 of Jiangsu Province. Then, it use LMDI model to analyze how the factors of economic development, energy structure, energy efficiency influencing the carbon emissions per capita from the level of energy consumption.The results showed that:First, the volume of carbon emission is huge and it continues to grow. The energy consumption structure is coal and oil-based. The growth of carbon emission in Jiangsu showed two different stages. The carbon emission has a steady growth during period from 1995-2003 and increases greatly during the period from 2004-2009 because of the rapid development of the economy.Second, through the least squares analysis, the major affecting factors of carbon emission in Jiangsu Province are mainly the economic development factors and energy consumption factors. From the long term, it exist a negative correlation between the carbon emission and industrial output value as well as a positive correlation between the carbon emission and energy consumption for Jiangsu Province. However, compared with the economic indicators, energy consumption has much greater impact on the growth of carbon emission. From the year of 1995, with rapid economic development of industry of Jiangsu, the advent of large-scale improved the energy efficiency and reduced the carbon emissions growth. But the economic development makes a faster growth for carbon emission, so the gross amount shows an upward trend.Three, the paper use the model of LMDI to classify the affecting factors of the carbon emission per capita into pull factors (economic growth) and disincentives (the energy mix, energy efficiency) from the level of energy consumption in Jiangsu province. The growth of per capita carbon emissions can be divided into two phases: The first phase is from 1996 to 2003, during which the per capita carbon emission in Jiangsu Province continued to grow steadily. It was mainly because the economy increased steadily during this period and energy efficiency was a disincentive factor but had a comparatively low influence. The second stage is from 2004 to 2009, the per capita carbon emission increases greatly in Jiangsu. The economy grows very fast during this period. Although the energy efficiency and energy structures shows an impact of inhibition, but the influence is relatively so small. It shows that the energy structure becomes more and more reasonable, but the energy efficiency need to be further improved.