Research On Low-carbon Development Of Urban Traffic In Shanghai Based On LMDI Model

Traffic energy consumption and related carbon emissions in China rise year byyear. What factors can have some impacts on the change of traffic energyconsumption and related carbon emissions? And how much the contribution of eachfactor is? Therefore it is very significant to analyze traffic energy consumption andrelated carbon emissions, which is not only advantageous to sustainabledevelopment, but also to mitigate the global climate warming.After collecting and learning a mass of1iteratures about internal and externalcarbon emission, traffic development, energy consumption and related carbonemissions in Shanghai from2000to2010have been analyzed to supply theevidence for establishing low-carbon traffic system. This thesis mainly includes thefollowing areas:(1)In recent years, traffic in Shanghai entered a rapid development stage.Passenger transport quantity, passenger turnover quantity, freight transport quantityand freight turnover quantity have increased rapidly. We use elastic coefficientmethod to analyze the relation, the result is:①The elastic wave between economyand traffic development is large. it displays that the sensitivity of traffic on GDPand industrial structure is high.②During many years traffic development inShanghai was lagging behind economic growth, not adapt to high-speed ofeconomic development. Therefore the traffic will continue to increase thedevelopment, in order to adapt to the rapid growth of economy.(2)Traffic energy include petroleum, electric, thermodynamic, natural gas andcoal. According to statistics, in2010the traffic energy consumption was2070.22million tons of standard coal, approximately accounts for18.55%. At present,compared with other different transport models, water traffic accounts for thegreatest. Among different residents travel modes, private car energy consumptionaccounts for the largest proportion, the ratio of bus and taxi energy consumptiondecreases significantly. In2010, the percentage of private car, bus and taxi were50.33%,26.31%and21.69%, and rail transportation energy consumption accountedfor the smallest proportion. From2000to2010, the energy consumption per unitconversion traffic volume appeared fluctuant change, the overall upward trend. Per unit oil consumption showed a similar trend of comprehensive energy consumption.On the contrary, the energy consumption per unit output value overall appeareddeclining trend. The energy consumption elasticity coefficient is0.94on average,indicating that the energy consumption in Shanghai was lagging behind economicgrowth.(3)From2000to2010, the carbon emissions from traffic energy consumptionin Shanghai increased year by year, from401.00million tons of carbon increased to1187.81million tons of carbon, with an average annual growth rate of12.11%. Thecarbon emissions from oil consumption were the main component, from306.77million tons of carbon to1090.45million tons of carbon, increasing2.55times.During the research period, the carbon emission intensity from traffic energypresented fluctuant decreasing trend, from2.33tons of carbon/million yuan fell to1.42tons of carbon/million yuan, dropped to38.85%, with an average annualdecline rate of3.16%.(4)Taking2000as the base year, using LMDI decomposition method, thechange of carbon emissions from traffic energy consumption has been decomposed.The results shows:①The carbon emission intensity from traffic energy decreased,with energy intensity playing a major role. The effect of energy structure to thepromotion of reducing carbon emission intensity was weak, but it appearedincreasing trend.②Traffic carbon emissions increased year by year. The residentpopulation and per capita GDP had promoting effects on increasing traffic carbonemissions, always producing positive effect. Except2004, energy intensity alwayshad negative effect. Energy structure always produced negative effect, having animportant role for reducing carbon emissions.