| In recent years, housing prices exhibit a continuously rising trend。for example, growth rates of commercial housing price between 2005 and 2009 are 14.0%,6.3%,14.8%,—1.7%,23.2%, from the data we can see that except 2008(because of economic recession)price fell a little, the remaining years all represent a rapid rising trend。In order to check this trend, the government promulgated a series of policies but did not meet the sound effect。Although in 2010 the state released 2 policies in the target of reducing the high rising speed of housing price, it did, however, growing upward by 7.35%。This article first through calculates from 2007 to 2009 national 28 provinces (city) the house price proportion of income, supported the argument that real estate market already appear bubble. then from our country national's condition, from aspects on demand, supplies, policy, system analyzed the high house price the formation mechanism, we consider the overall evaluation of possible factor that bringing about domestic real estate industry price excessively high, select the suitable economic indicators in this foundation, then construct the real estate price of double logarithm explanation model, the national 28 provinces and cities panel data are carried on the real.the analysis is from 2000 to 2009 (among, Tibet, Ningxia and Xinjiang because the partial data were insufficient), using generalized least squared(GLS),carrying on the cross-section weights, choosing fixed effects between the use individual member in the explanation model.Then estimates the real estate price explanation model.Through empirical analysis of panel data, I think that the main reason of rapidly rising real estate prices is the current "move, shoot, hang," combined with local GDP-based performance evaluation mechanism, the Housing developers and local governments to promote the joint behavior of prices rising rapidly. As institutional factors, reversal of this reality will take a long time, I think it should be considered long-term, improve the housing supply system, increase low-rent housing and affordable housing construction, to sell its land use allocation of the way, for the low more than the amount of income to provide high quality low price of housing, which can improve the current social housing irrational supply structure, taking into account the macro-economic policy goals and social goals; the same time, affordable housing and low-rent housing construction quantity and quality as a local important government performance evaluation mechanism.The author in this particular points out, the reasons that national implementation of a series of macroeconomic policy measures but house prices still rise rapidly, for one, is some of the policy effect is cancel each other out, for example, consider the "new countries article 10" clear land supply management strictly again and tightening credit the two policy measures, in real estate prices double logarithm model, the panel data come to the conclusion that the government each control credit expansion will make one percent drop in house prices by 0.029%, but under current land policy lowering land supply each one percent will bring prices rose 0.054%, policy, and not just appear offset sex regulation will bring prices rise 0.025% instead, this is probably important reasons of "the regulation, house prices rose higher".Real estate prices of its own has strong inertia, this price will greatly influence the next issue of price, policy formulation to both the short-run and long-run, also we should pay attention to avoid the policy effect the offset effect. |
PDF Full Text Request