An Empirical Analysis On The Regional Differences Of Housing Market Cyclical Fluctuations In China

Traditional real estate economics thinks the real estate market is a regional market, real estate market always has a certain regularity in different regions. Meanwhile there are some relationships between markets for the impacts of macroeconomic, finance, and real estate policies.Therefore study on Housing Market in different regions and its regular pattern is of positive significance to master the basic laws of market fluctuations.This paper reviews and sums up the related theories, research method and results. On this basis, relying on cross spectral analysis the research system of Housing Market Cyclical fluctuations is constructed and an empirical analysis with"traded areas"and"transacted prices"on 21 cities is made. Studies show that the length of housing cycle is 25 months for most cities and the lead-lag is no more than 2 months. In addition, this paper finds out that the relevance of housing prices cycle and the significance of leading-lag relationship will be reduced by using"transacted prices",at the same,the consistencies of common cycles improves.