A Study Of Cyclical Fluctuations Of Real Estate Market In Xi'an

Recent years, the industry of real estate is developing so fast that it has become one of the backbone industries which promote national economic development. To protect the healthy operation of the national economy, the real estate industry's healthy and stable development is an important prerequisite. However, the phenomenon, the development of real estate must accompany with market volatility, is determined by the market economy operation law. So how to master the market operation law thus prevent the real estate market going through ups and downs, catches public' eyeballs increasingly. This thesis attempts to research on the operation process of real estate market in Xi'an by using simple and intuitive methods so that find out the characteristics and laws of cyclical fluctuations, in order to the predict trends of real estate market and then provide a theoretical basis for controlling the real estate market.This paper consists of four parts:The first part is an inductive analysis of the real estate cyclical fluctuations index system method and the cyclical fluctuations measurement method by learning the major views on real estate cyclical fluctuations wave theory at home or abroad. This paper put forward a method to recognize the real estate cyclical fluctuations, namely using principal component analysis and empirical mode decomposition. And this thesis holds that there are periodic features existing in Xi'an real estate market and the author has a test on it by using the method of cyclical fluctuations.The second part is about prediction and judgment on the trend of the real estate market prices by using moving average line and the OBV technology based on the characteristics of the real estate market in Xi'an. From what have been discussed above, the real estate market in Xi'an is supposed to experience a rising cyclical fluctuation for a relatively longer period of time in future.The third part is about using the gray relational fluctuations market to make a quantitative analysis of the real estate in Xi'an, on the basis of qualitative analysis of the fluctuations reasons in the real estate market. The author thinks that the development of real estate market is closely relevant to the rapid development of macro-economic, and shows that supply and demand structure of the real estate market in Xi'an remains in requiring being further adjusted.Finally, by analyzing and evaluating the "State 10" which was recently put into effect, the author recommended accordingly the macro-control policy to promote the healthy development of the real estate market in Xi'an.