| Real estate is the pillar industry of national economy in China, which plays an important role to promote national economy and social development, speed up urbanization and improve the housing conditions. With the reform of our housing system deepens, real estate of Jiangxi developed fast. Meanwhile, real estate market of Jiangxi showed wide fluctuations.On account of Jiangxi province conditions, this thesis was to do the systematic research on the risk and periodical fluctuation of Jiangxi real estate market based on business cycle theory, real estate cycle theory, real estate market risk theory, value at risk and system dynamics theory.On the basis of research result, firstly, value at risk was used to estimate the volatility risk of Jiangxi real estate. Then treating added value of real estate as the object of real estate risk evaluation, a risk model of real estate was established by choosing 7 indicators like GDP, consumer price index, urban and rural residents savings deposit balance, commercial housing sales, real estate investment, value-added of construction and value-added of finance as the risk influencing factors. Positive studies found that the potential volatility of Jiangxi real estate was strong, while the accumulated level of market risk was not high.Based on business cycle theory and real estate cycle theory, the objectivity of periodical fluctuation of Jiangxi real estate was proved by building evaluation index system of real estate periodical fluctuation considered practice and the empirical analysis from individual parameter and comprehensive parameter's view. Mathematical model about relevant data was built in the use of causality and flow chart diagram of system dynamics theory. Relationship and restraining mechanism was analyzed and dynamic behavior and periodical rule of system were showed. The curves of the laws of Jiangxi real estate were imitated by Vensim. On this basis, relevant policy was suggested for the real estate development of Jiangxi. |
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