Research Of Early Warning System In ShangHai Real Estate Market Based On Comprehensive Simulation

In 2003, the State Council Notice about promoting sustained and healthy real estate market development points out that real estate industry has become mainstay in national economy. Recently, the price of property keeps at high level, which has been already beyond the limit that majorities could afford. Besides a corresponding regulation system, we need'an early warning system more instantly when faced with the rapid price growth, which could estimate and lead the real estate market correctly and rationally, consequently leading a more health and stable real estate industry.Based on the periodic and warning system theory and applying data analysis, setting up a real estate warning system.Currently, there are three methods of real estate warning systems, which are Business cycle method,System method and Comprehensive simulation.By a set of Prosperity index (antecedence, synchronization, lag), Business cycle method could analyze and predict the future tendency of real estate industry. Business cycle method used widely in real estate warning system, however, we need a stable economic environment if using this method. Also, Business cycle method only can used for predict future economic tendency, without a warning of future tendency. So this method cannot be used here because of an inconsistent of the warning system we need.More and more scholars use some complicated and sophisticated way to design real estate warning systems, which contribute a lot for quantitative study of these kinds of study with theory researches going deep. However, real estate market is a huge and complex system, so that those complex system models may not be of higher adaptability and accuracy than those simple system methods, even those qualitative analysis methods. So System method isn't also a practicable tool.We will set up a real estate warning system by Comprehensive simulation.Taking a kind of Traffic control signal system method, Comprehensive simulation, could reflect the situation and tendency of future economy. First, we choose a set of Key Performance Indicators according to sensitivity. precedence. and stability principles. And then, we divide the real estate economic fluctuation into several judgment intervals. The critical points are quantity standards of judging all composite indexes, and eventually create a quantitative evaluation, which could predict real estate future tendency.As one of the most developed city and financial center of China. Shanghai has always been developing so fast that it has become an international city. The unique economic and humanities environments make Shanghai a popular real estate investment city. Also as a representative city of China, Shanghai is valuable for the research of real estate industry development, which is not only important for Shanghai but also important for all over the country. So we study on the data of real estate industry in Shanghai, and the results are almost consistent with data of the real situation, which confirmed the feasibility of our real estate warning system.The innovation of this paper is to set up a new real estate warning Key Performance Indicators. And then, using Exponential Smoothing Method, we made a further study on the prediction of future data in real estate market based on the Key Performance Indicators. Finally, we combined our warning system with real market in Shanghai, and both effects are demonstrated with the help of empirical research survey.