Xi'an Real Estate Early-warning System Design And Empirical Research

It is Real Estate that is the mainstay of Chinese economy. It must be monitored and controlled effectively for the huge damage it can make to Chinese economy if related economic fluctuation happens. However, there are differences exist among different areas in Real Estate, and some problems in some cities will be concealed based on the research of Real Estate in the whole country, so it is necessary to do research of Early-warning to Real Estate in cities.My research is to build the system of Early-warning of Real Estate in Xi'an city, then prove it by using actual data, and estimate the health condition of Real Estate in Xi'an city. The significance of Early-warning of Real Estate is that it provides basis of decision-making for participants of Real Estate including governments, enterprises of Real Estate, common consumers and investors of housing.Based on the summing-up of theories Early-warning of economy and Real Estate in China and abroad, my research will pay attention to the city Xi'an, and use the Method of Comprehensive Simulation, combine the theories of economy fluctuation of Real Estate and theories of urban market and economy, build the foundation of the research of Early-warning of Real Estate. First, my research will use qualitative analysis and to build the index of Early-warning. Second, confirm the weight of index of Early-warning by experts marking and time difference relevance analysis, build the bond of warning and store of headstream by theorem of 3σ. Third, input the data of Early-warning in the past years in Xi'an city to the system and analyze it. At the end, analyze the head stream and solving measures.My research has three conclusions. The first, there are three steps of Real Estate in Xi'an city, the step of feebleness from 1996 to 1997, the step of normal from 1998 to 2004, the step of tepefaction in 2005, and no more tepefaction happens. The balance between Real Estate in Xi'an city and urban economy become steady gradually. The second, the recognized bound of warning is not appropriate to a specifically city in China. The third, the possible headstream of warning in Real Estate in Xi'an city are greater scale of investment, higher vocational profit, faster increase of demand, and foundation of new areas in city.