The Construction And Empirical Analysis Of City Real Estate Warning System Based On Comprehensive Simulation

In recent years, the real estate industry gets a rapid development with driving ofhousing reform and economic development, highlights the important status andinfluence of the real estate industry in the national economy. Although the real estateindustry gves a significant contribution to economic and social development, therestill remains many problems in it. The problems of development of the real estatemarket are bad for the sustained and healthy development of the real estate andnational economy. Formulating the city real estate warning system to monitor theoperation and development trends of the real estate market, and forecasting thepossible warning is the key to sustained and healthy development of China’s urbanreal estate.The fomulation and operation of real estate warning system is crucial for judgingthe real estate market trend, assisting government department to make the real estateplanning and control policies, guiding residents’ rational housing investment andconsumption, and promoting the healthy and stable development of China’s real estatemarket.On the basis of research of real estatte warning theory and warning methods, thisarticle decides to fomulate the city real estate warning system with comprehensivesimulation through comparative analysis of real estate warning methods and the actualsituation of China’s real estate market. The real estate warning system has innovationson the structure design and function, could meet the requirement of market operation.Firstly, we use the Delphi method and AHP to build a city real estate warningindicator system, and then determine the category weight of warning indicator systemthrough fuzzy clustering and the analytic hierarchy process. Later, we use principalcomponent analysis to synthesize the warning index, and give prediction ofcomprehensive warning indicator with a smooth prediction model. Finally, we givewarnings of the situation and operation of real estate market with warning regionthrough3σwarning method.In this paper, we select Changsha to make empirical analysis. We get result onthe base of comprehensive simulation of city real estate warning system.The empiricalresults of analysis of Changsha’s real estate warning accord with the real situation. Sothe city real estate warning system is scientific and feasible.