Research On The Theory And Methods Of Real Estate Market Early Warning

With the quickening of the urbanization process of our country, the real estate industry whichhas a strong industrial relevancy and leading ability, has become the pillar industry of nationaleconomy and new economic growth points. In recent years, both the supply and demand of realestate are remained strong trend. Because of the character periodic circulating fluctuation of realestate industry, even one of its abnormal volatilities may cause an adverse effect on nationaleconomy.The aim of this study is to reduce this kind of adverse effects as much as possible by buildinga real estate early warning system, which can evaluate the current state of real estate marketcorrectly. At beginning of the paper, the theories and methods of real estate early warning wereanalyzed comprehensively on the basis of existing related research. By made a comparison ofearly warning methods, and analyzed all of their advantages and disadvantages, this study adoptsthe comprehensive simulation method to make a early warning analysis on Tianjin’s real estatemarket. Further, the appropriate indexes were chosen to build a early warning index systemfocused on the three parts, include the coordination degrees between the real estate industry andmacro-economy, the coordination degrees between supply and demand condition of real estatemarket, the balance degree of the internal structure of real estate market. Analytic hierarchyprocess was used in confirming the weight of index, and then the sub-items index and compositeindex were calculated. Finally, based on the study above, the thesis operates the early warningsystem by using the information of Tianjin real estate market, gives pre-warning of2011of realestate market in Tianjin and corresponding suggestions.