The Risk Assessment On The Sea-Rail Transport Network Based On The Double-layer Gray Fuzzy Model

In recent years, with the globalization of world economy and the intensifying transport market competition, international trade has becoming more frequently, which makes it impossible to achieve customer requirements only relying on one mode of transport. Multimodal transport has been widely concerned in the transport industry and the sea and railway transport ranks top one of them. Sea and railway transport is an intermodal forms of organization with the goal of achieving the transport optimal target, and its most obvious advantage is altering the traditional port to port transport to the door to door transport mode. It not only can give full play to the advantages of various modes of transport to achieve a seamless connection between the various modes of transport, but using "one consignment, once paid, one-vote to the end, a unified claims, sea and railway transport operator responsible" organizational form, thus saving inventory costs and transportation costs, and achieving the advantages of transport economics.With the rapid development of sea and railway transport, sea and railway transport network risk management is gradually concerned and paid attention to the majority of the scholars. Risk assessment is very important and necessary to the risk management, which main purpose is to have the overall risk evaluation of the project, analysis the interaction between risk and project and the main risk bearing capacity, etc., thus specifying the level of the risk and making the decision of how to cope with the ultimate risk. It has important reference value and significance for the risk assessment work because it makes the sea and railway transport network reduce network risk, improves the efficiency of transport of goods, and reduces the economic losses.In this paper, the sea and railway transport network is the object for the risk assessment study. Firstly the thesis integrated the analysis of the SWOT and the characteristics of the sea and railway transport, set the sea and railway transport network risk assessment system from the perspective of quantitative and qualitative; Secondly, with the integration of the Analytic Hierarchy Process method, the information entropy method and the gray relational method, the thesis calculates each weight values of risk indicators in a subjective and objective, static and dynamic, gray and fuzzy way then empower the combination, which makes the ultimate indicator of the weight more objective and accurate, improves the accuracy and effectiveness of the evaluation. Thirdly, through the effective combination of gray system theory and the theory of fuzzy mathematics the thesis builds a double-layer gray fuzzy risk assessment model and makes the further comprehensive evaluation and analysis to the risk factors of the sea and railway transport network. Finally, using the index system, double-layer model and the evaluation methods, the paper analyzed Shanxi Coal sea and railway transport network risk assessment, and the risk level of Shanxi coal sea and railway transport network is in" Medium risk and high risk, and tend to higher risk" level.