Todaro Correction Model Analysis Of The Causes Of The Current "labor Shortage" Phenomenon

The agricultural surplus labor mainly refers to labors in the agriculture whose productivity is lower than the average. In the process of industrialization, it is the historical inevitability of the surplus agricultural labors' moving to urban areas. The present status of agricultural production in China determines the numerous surplus labors in agriculture. After the reform and opening up, it has shown the tide phenomenon of peasant workers which means lots of agricultural labors move into urban for employment. But after2002, this common phenomenon suddenly changed into an unexpected phenomenon of the "labor shortage". It firstly broke out in the Yangtze River Delta region, soon speeded across the whole country and became more and more serious day by day. In the recovery process of China's economy, emerging gradually from the shackles by the subprime mortgage crisis, the widespread shortage of labor is far more dramatic in the secondary labor market. Todaro Migration Model is an important theoretical basis for researches that focus on migration employment of agricultural labor in the developing countries. But there are significant differences between its content and the current domestic situation. Therefore, in order to enhance the theoretical simulation, there is important theoretical value to commence the correction of the Todaro Model based on national conditions. The problem of labor shortage has been highlighted to be the serious constraints to the development of the economy and society, besides the stability and harmony of the society. Thus there is important academic value and practical significance to study the economics causes of the "peasant workers shortage" phenomenon, based on the Todaro correction model.This paper analyzes the current common phenomenon of shortage of peasant workers nationwide, aiming at explaining and solving this shortage of rural workforce.Firstly, the paper describes the process, the performance characteristics and social impact of this "labor shortage" phenomenon, in order to pave the way of analyzing the causes. Subsequently, this paper describes the Todaro Model, the classical theory which is used to analyze the migration of agricultural labors in developing countries. On this basis, it makes corrections of the Todaro Model according to the domestic socio-economic status. It adjusts and increases influencing factors which can describe the characteristics of domestic reality and the process of farmers'decision-making more accurately, in order to enhance the fit of model to the real problem.The core content of the paper is the economic analysis of the causes of the "labor shortage" phenomenon within the framework of Todaro Correction Model. Firstly, the paper makes qualitative analysis of the role of decision-making factors in the farmers'migration decision-making process, then quantitative research through measurement model. So the paper can explore the economic causes of the "labor shortage" phenomenon deeply.Conclusions show that, under the condition of expected income gap between rural and urban becoming nearer, rural labor force reduce the migrating employment number to the cities due to the gradually increase of psychological costs, thus leading to the phenomenon of labor shortage in urban labor market. Originally, the shortage of agricultural labors belongs to shortage of rights.On this basis, the paper proposes targeted policy recommendations to solve the current "labor shortage" phenomenon:Coordinated development of urban and rural; Improvement of the social system; Reinforcement of the equal awareness of rights and interests; Improvement of the standard of education and training; Rational planning of population development.