Model Modifications And Empirical Analysis Of The Relative Carrying Capacity Of Resources

The model of relative carrying capacity of resources was proposed by ProfessorHuang and Professor Kuang in2000, and it was applied to analyze the sustainabledevelopment of Guangdong province. Since then, it had been widely applied toempirical analysis and made a lot of applied successes. But, there were somedeficiencies in the model for it stated still in developing stage. According to theauthor’s study, there were six mainly deficiencies as follows:(1)For the specific study area, besides the natural resource land, there might beother natural resource that affected population capacity power, such as water, energyand so on.(2)When calculating the comprehensive capacity power, the way that let theweight of each factor equivalent may be too subjective.(3)When calculating the comprehensive capacity power, the way that using asimple linear weight, not taking into account the interaction among resourcesmatching, balanced development and other issues.(4)The division of the standard of capacity state was too rough. Such as tworegions A, B stated the same state of population overload, but there was somedifference in degree between them? It was clearly that the traditional model did notresolve it.(5)During static analysis, ignoring the facts that different regions had differentutilization efficiency of natural resources and living cost. If applying the traditionalmodel directly, the accuracy of the results of empirical analysis was doubtful.(6)During dynamic analysis, many documents regarded the country as areference area, and took national average level as a bench mark. Because the studyarea is a subset of the reference area, it would affect the relative carrying capacity ofresources of dynamic impact to regional growth trends (chapter2).First, this paper improved the traditional model based on the six deficiencies thathad proposed above. Such as proposing the comprehensive models based on the pulleffect of the dominant resources and the constraint effect of the inferior resources.Adding the "resource-related items" and "correction factor" into the model; extendingthe carry state division of standards from "overload, critical, and surplus" to "seriousoverload, overload, critical, surplus, very redundant";during empirical analysis, theselected study area was not included as a subset of the reference area and so on. Through these amendments, the improved model was more scientific and rational thanthe traditional model in the theoretical system, and empirical results would be moreaccurate too.Second, based on the modified model in conjunction with data from statisticalyearbook from2001to2008, this paper comprehensively analyzed sustainabledevelopment of31provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities of mainlandChina in2008.Conclusions were drawn as follows:(1)In2008the number of theprovinces and cities whose number of population was greater than the carryingcapacity of the relative integrated resources was found to be20, in which11provinceswere in a significant overloading status,9provinces and cities in a relativelyoverloading status.(2)The number of the provinces whose number of population wasless than the carrying capacity of the relative integrated resources was11, including6provinces in an abundant status and5provinces in a very abundant status.(3)Ingeneral, the distribution of population seemed to be uneven across China, andprovinces in an overloading status are distributed primarily in regions of easternChina and central China. Provinces in a significant overloading status are distributedprimarily in regions of central China. In particular, it examined the sustainabledevelopment of Xinjiang across the period1978-2008. Conclusions are drawn asfollows.(1)Xinjiang was in a very abundant status from1978-2008.(2)Trends in thenumber of population surplus, carrying capacity of the relative integrated resources,as well as the greatest rate of the very abundant status first increased and thendecreased.Third, the model of improved carrying capacity of relative resources was used tocalculate the single and Compositive carrying capacity of resources of9provincesand cities from1978to2008. Then the coefficient of variation was used to analyzethe evolution condition of carrying capacity of different regions in China, and theresults showed that:(1)The provinces that their carrying capacity gap from big tosmall were ShanXi, ShanDong, BeiJing, GanSu, FuJian, GuiZhou, YunNan, HuBeiand AnHui.(2)The carrying capacity change trend of ShanXi showed "M" type on thewhole.(3)The carrying capacity change trend of ShanDong showed inverted" N" typeon the whole.(4)The carrying capacity change trend of BeiJing, GanSu and HuBeishowed increasing trend overall; while YunNan showed decreasing trend overall; andAnHui showed smooth on the whole.(5)The carrying capacity change trend of FuJianand GuiZhou showed decreasing trend and then increasing trend.Meanwhile, the theory of new classic growth convergence was used to analyze the regional differenceevolution trend of carrying capacity of9provinces and cites of eastern, central andwestern China. The results showed that:(1)HuBei, YunNan and ShanDong displayedtheδconvergence from1978-2008.(2)The growth of carrying capacity showedabsolute β convergence from1978-2008.(3)The provinces that their growth ofcarrying capacity showed the club convergence were ShanDong, AnHui, HuBei andShanXi from1978-2008.Finally,the decoupling theory was used to study the decoupling relationshipbetween compositive carrying capacity and resources in Beijing from1978to2008,and the results showed that:(1) The relationship between compositive carryingcapacity and land resource in Beijing from1978to2008was decoupling, whichmeant that the compositive carrying capacity gradually reduced the dependence onland resources;(2) The relationship between compositive carrying capacity andenergy resource in Beijing from1978to2008was decoupling and negativedecoupling, namely the compositive carrying capacity increased dependence onenergy resources in some years while lower in some year some years, but overall flat;(3) The relationship between compositive carrying capacity and economic resource inBeijing from1978to2008was negative decoupling, which meant that economicresource did not play the supporting role of the compositive carrying capacity.