Combined Forecast Of Highway Freight Volume Based On Interval Scenairos

The highway freight volume forecast results are one of the most important bases forroad transportation enterprise to make marketing plans and marketing decisions, and thegovernment to make road transportation planning and evaluate highway constructionprojects, which will have a major impact on the subsequent decision-making.The unpredictability of domestic and international economic developments and otherfactors leads to uncertainty of highway freight volume. There is a big gap between thesingle value of deterministic traditional forecasting method and the actual situation, sothat in some cases will lead to the improper decision-making and even mistakes. Theinterval value can enable policy makers to better understand the future development andpossible changes in the scope of highway freight volume, and make better decision tocope with risks arising from uncertainty. Therefore, integrated the interval analysismethod with the combined forecasting method, an interval combined forecasting modelof highway freight volume is proposed, which input values are point values of a varietyof the predicted results, and the output value is the interval value. On this basis, thescenario analysis method is used to analyze the future development trend of the highwayfreight volume, and then its possible development scenarios are set. In each scenario,considering changes in influencing factors, the combined forecast of highway freightvolume based on interval scenarios is proposed and the optimization model is establishedto determine the interval upper and lower bounds of the forecast results in each scenario.Finally, four methods, namely, the traditional forecast, the combined forecast theinterval combined forecast and the combined forecast of highway freight volume basedon interval scenarios are used to predict and analyze the highway freight volumedevelopment trends of Hunan Province. The last one is proved to better reflect the futuredevelopment trends.The research result of this thesis not only has important theoretical value forimproving the precision and accuracy of the highway freight volume forecast, but alsohas a wide range of practical value, such as corporate marketing decisions, road transportdevelopment plans, transportation planning, network analysis and evaluation.