| Dongying city located at the Yellow River estuary, and is the Yellow River deltaimportant city. However, water quantity for surface water yearly average is only 447million m~3 and the ground water yearly average is 85 million m~3. The local waterresources total quantity is insufficient to support the development of economy andsociety. Therefore, how to ensure the sustainable use of water resources can betterserve human is the problem to be solved.Based on the concrete analysis of Dongying city 2009, 2015, 2020 on the basis ofthe balance of supply and demand of water resources, this paper makes a moreobjective assessment about water resources sustainable utilization of the Dongyingcity from 2000 to 2009, and predicts sustainable use from 2013 to 2020. The maincontents and conclusions are as follows:The first part is an introduction. In this paper, it mainly introduced the backgroundand significance of topic, present situation about home and abroad, and the maincontent and technical route.The second part introduces the natural geographical conditions and social economicsituation. Geographical conditions mainly present the geographical position and theresearch area, weather, climate, hydrology geology, topography, soil, animal and plantresources. Finally, the paper introduces the water resources in Dongying city,including the local water resources and guest water of water resources, the guest waterfrom the Yellow River, xiaoqinghe River, Zhimaihe River and so on.The third part is the balance of supply and demand analysis. Water demand forecastincludes four parts: life water demand forecast, industrial water demand forecast,agricultural water demand forecast and ecological and environmental waterrequirement forecast. Water supply forecast is including surface water resource, groundwater resources and water resources of the Yellow River. The paper calculatesand analyzes supply and demand conditions of the Dongying city water resources in2009, and predicts the supply and demand of water resources for the planning years2015, 2020. The main conclusions: in 2009, under 50%, 75% guaranteed rates, thetotal water demand is bigger than the total water supply, and water deficit reaches153.72 million m~3and 321.48million m~3; in 2015, under 50%, 75% guaranteed rates,water deficit reaches 39.86 million m~3and 190.93 million m~3; in 2020, under 50%,75% guaranteed rates, the results is changed from the surplus 37.15 million m~3todeficit 120.96 million m~3.The fourth part take the DPSIR model as frame, which is divided into driving force,pressure, state, influence and response five aspects. The selections of 21 indexes wereset up as the index system of the sustainable use evaluation. The paper evaluates thesustainable utilization level from 2000 to 2009. From the results we can know: From2000 to 2009, water resources sustainable utilization level shows wave rising inDongying city, the highest level was in 2009, and the lowest level was in 2002.Taking DPSIR model as framework, which have five aspects evaluation indexes aredriving force, pressure, state, influence and response. The indexes were carried on thereliability analysis. The variation coefficient method determines the index weight, thecomprehensive evaluation use the weighted average method. Based on the analysisthe result, it uses the grey prediction model to make the forecast of the sustainableutilization of the level in 2013-2020. From 2013 to 2020, water resources sustainableutilization level has been on a steady rise state, water use and developmentenvironment get obvious improvement in Dongying city.The fifth part put forward the modes of the water resources sustainable use fromdeveloping new water, industrial water and agricultural water.The sixth part put forward the suggestions in view of the Dongying water resourcesconditions, which are expected to the rational use of water resources.The seventh part summarizes the main ideas of the paper, and points out the papershortcomings. |
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