Reasearch On Travel Mode Choice Of Residents Based On Ordered Choices Model

With the development of economics as well as urbanization, the level of the trip intensityand motorization of the urban residents has raised up, and the vehicular traffic movements inthe city will keep raising, but the urban land resource is limited, it is impossible to havelarge-scale traffic infrastructure construction, so urban traffic congestion has become aworldwide social problem, it brings us trip inconvenience、noise pollution、air pollution andmany other questions, and it has already become the bottleneck of the urban sustainabledevelopment. It is high time to reduce the traffic congestion. Optimizing transport structure、developing public traffic、reducing the private car using are feasible to solve the problem,and those practices can also save the urban land resource, relieve the pressure of environmentand resource shortage, improve the life quality of the urban residents, and help to form anorderly comprehensive traffic system, which is the most important issue to make the urbandevelopment sustainable, and reduce the traffic congestion. Based on the will of the residents,the author researches on the travel mode with Ordered Choices model, to help making anoptimization transport structure strategy.This paper includes those points:First, based on reading a large number of paper, the author gives an summary of thefollowing problems, travel mode choice model、optimizing transport Structure、urban publictransport travel mode choice model and mode choice on the will of the residents;Then, briefly explains the classification of travel mode, analysis the characteristics ofeach mode, and gives a comparative analysis of each mode from different aspects liketransport characteristics、resource consumption characteristics、external environment costcharacteristics and cost of usage characteristics;Third, describes the mental behavior of the residents when they choose the travel modefrom three aspects, travel demand、mental factors of mode selection and preference of travelmode selection. And explains the main factor which decides the choosing of the residentswhen they choose travel mode, it is a theoretical basis of the variables chosen in the model oftravel mode ranking selection;Forth, introduces the main theory of Ordered Choice model, discuss deeply in theconstruction process of this model, give the deduction and calculation of the model’s marginal effect and elastic sensitivity;At last, take the traffic congestion charging as an example, build the Ordered Choicesmodel of traffic congestion charging, then calibrate the parameters and examine the modelwith econometric software Stata, analysis the sensitivity of the Variables related in the modelfrom three aspects----variable coefficients, marginal effect of the variables and Variableelasticity, forecast the traffic congestion charging rate in study area by using the model on thebase of the current situation of the investigation sample, thus provide reference for thestudying and setting of the traffic congestion charging rate.