Research On Probabilistic Production Simulation In Power System Including Wind Farms

It becomes increasingly severe that the operation security of power system is being affected by the expansion of wind power. Thus, research on power system probabilistic production simulation integrated wind farms has important significance for developing wind power reasonably, accessing the system reliability and scheduling mixed power including wind power and conventional power.Due to the nature of randomness of wind power, an approach based on multi-state modeling wind power is proposed for power system probabilistic production simulation. Numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate the validity of the methodology, which shows that the presented model can provide a basis for the further research for evaluating benefits of the wind farm.Then, analyze the difference of mathematical model and calculation process in three typical algorithms of the power system probabilistic production simulation (Fast Fourier Transform method, Cumulant method and Equivalent Energy Function method). Based on the comparison of those algorithms, it presents the advantages and disadvantages of each. And analyze the impacts of wind power using the Equivalent Energy Function method of probabilitic production simulation.Considering with the Forced Outage Rate of the units, use the improved model to calculate the grid reliability indicators with spinning reserve and the assessment of wind power in probabilistic production simulation. It proposes an objective function with best economical benefit to calculate the opportunity cost of spinning reserve and the change of reliability level, which has important significance for evaluating the development of wind power.