Study Of Generation Expasion Planning Model For Heilongjiang Province Based On Considering Incorporating Large-scale Power

The fleet and excellent development of electric power in Heilongjiang Province plays aimportant role in economic rise. Abundant resource of coal and wind support electric powerdevelopment.Power Grid is the infrastructure of the national economy, an important part of nationalenergy security, and play an important role in safeguarding of building a moderatelyprosperous society and a socialist harmonious society. The Heilongjiang Province "12th-five"power load forecasting and generation expansion planning face the energy crisis actively, andis an important measure of economic development services, have important theoretical andpractical significance.For problem of long-term load forecasting, the traditional methods of elasticitycoefficient, time series and industry consumption have their own advantages anddisadvantages on prediction accuracy and the time of prediction. This paper uses thesemethods to establish the Heilongjiang Province ‘12th-Five’ long-term load forecasting model,according to characteristics of the industrial structure of Heilongjiang Province to form a newsub-industry elasticity coefficient. Finally, the method of time-varying forecast is returned byusing a variety of forecasting methods. These methods complement each other. The improvedmethod is more accurate in predicting than those original methods by checking the historicaldata.On the basic of long-term load forecasting, we establish the mathematic model of‘12th-Five’generation expansion planning completely, the model considers the planning ofwind turbine for the first time, and to accept the power capacity of wind power as animportant constraint to study. In the process of planning, the use of evolutionaryprogramming method to solve the power optimization problem. For conventional power andwind turbine capacity on a single difference, design a new method of forming the initialpopulation and evolutionary strategies, improve accuracy of the original algorithm andconvergence properties of the optimization. Based on a comprehensive mathematical modeland the improved algorithm, this paper carrys out a detailed plan of HeilongjiangProvince"12th-five" generation expansion planning.Finally, use the results of Heilongjiang Province ‘12th-Five’ long-term power loadforecasting and generation expansion planning to carry on the power balance calculation andpower flow analysis, will further guide the network planning of Heilongjiang Province and global planning of power industry.