| At present,the demand for electric power continues to rise throughout the Chinese industry,and how to save costs in the construction,operation and transmission of electric power is the focus of attention of various power departments in the current stage of the country.Therefore,the reasonable construction of the power grid is very important,which is an important factor that troubles China's economic development.Reasonable planning of the existing power grid structure and reasonable transformation can maximize the utilization of existing power facilities and increase the reliability of electricity consumption.Local economic construction and social development plan is also the important factors that directly affect the power grid planning,these aspects to do very good organic link,will power to do reasonable layout,urban distribution network to be scientific and reasonable,will combine the external factors of fushun city and area of different power demand do power resources to optimize the configuration of the processing.Based on the current situation of the power grid in fushun city,this paper conducts an accurate assessment of the existing power facilities after studying the power load of the city,and carries out a reasonable and scientific planning for the transformation of the power grid on the existing basis.Based on the current situation of the power grid in fushun city,this paper makes an accurate assessment of the existing power facilities after studying the power load in the city,and will carry out reasonable and scientific planning for the power grid transformation on the existing basis.The basis of power network planning is load forecasting,and the accuracy of load forecasting affects the feasibility and reliability of planning.In this article,after reviewing the relevant literature,the relevant concepts and theories were fully studied,and various types of load forecasting methods were studied one by one,and each type of prediction method was compared.The load prediction method that is most suitable for Fushun area is selected,and the support vector machine(SVM)method is finally used for modeling prediction,The nearly 10 years' historical electricity quantity and load data of fushun city were selected as the historical data for modeling,and the natural growth electricity quantity and load of the city were predicted.The final forecast results were obtained by combining the comprehensive evaluation of large user load data obtained from the survey,so as to make preparations for the next stage of power grid planning.After accurate load forecasting,by combining the current situation of FushunPower Grid,the data derived from the modeling will be used to develop the power grid planning.Different plans will be proposed for the current situation of the city's 66 k V,10 k V,and 0.38 k V respectively.And one by one for each plan to make an estimate of the capital investment,modify the deficiencies.According to the investment scale and load forecast results during the planning period,the economic benefit analysis of 66 k V and 10 kv in the power supply area under the jurisdiction of the company,city and county was conducted.At the same time,attention to their own economic benefits,but also to the analysis of social benefits.The construction and renovation of power distribution network will improve the economic benefits of power enterprises effectively,reduce the network loss,increase the power supply capacity,improve the reliability of power supply,and promote the development of society and the improvement of people's living standards. |
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