Research Of Demand Analysis And Forecast For Comprehensive Transportation Hub

Transportation is an important link of the national economy, and the development of comprehensive transport system can effectively enhance the transport productivity to ease the tense situation in the transportation supply, meanwhile it is an important means to improve economic efficiency. Comprehensive transport hub is an important part of the transportation system, so developing it is an effective way to improve the overall efficiency of transport and the level of service, to reduce logistics cost, and an urgent need for optimizing the transport structure, achieving the transport strategic transformation, as well as an objective requirement for intensive use of resources and energy saving.Transportation demand forecast is an important part of planning and constructing in a comprehensive transport hub, and a reasonable traffic forecast data can not only provide the basic data for a comprehensive transportation hub layout and construction, while it improves the quality of transportation services, transportation organizations and economic efficiency, so that it has far-reaching significance for the realization of rapid transport and saving construction investment.This paper takes the demand of the comprehensive hub as the research object. Firstly, it elaborates the overseas and domestic research status of the demand analysis and prediction in the comprehensive hub, analyzing the related concepts of transportation demand, its generation mechanism, characteristics and influencing factors; secondly, it summarizes the theories and method models of transportation demand prediction that use commonly in domestic and abroad, and it explains the transportation demand analysis of hub; furthermore, take the layout of comprehensive transportation hub in Anhui Province as an example, it analyzes the situation of various transportation modes in Anhui province from different angles; finally, as for the characteristic of not using transportation modes, a variety of demand prediction models are applied to predict passenger and freight traffic in the planning year. This essay research could provide some constructive thoughts and methods for analyzing and forecasting the transportation demand in comprehensive hub layout and offers some relevant references for the planning of comprehensive traffic hub.