Research On Intercity Trip Distribution Model Of Urban Agglomeration Based On Spatial Connection Strength

Traffic demand forecasting is a key link and basic work for the construction of intercity transportation systems in urban agglomerations.It plays a decisive role in the function positioning,system design scheme,and operation organization of intercity traffic.Travel distribution forecasting is the core component of traffic demand forecasting.The pros and cons of its model directly affect the accuracy of the prediction results.At present,the basic theories and methods of intercity traffic demand analysis and forecasting in urban agglomerations are not yet mature.Most of the engineering practices directly apply urban traffic demand forecasting methods,resulting in frequent occurrences of large deviations in forecast results,which is a prominent problem that needs to be solved urgently.This paper introduces the strength of multi-mode spatial connection and constructs a travel distribution model that conforms to the characteristics of intercity travel,which is of great significance for improving the theory and methods of intercity traffic demand forecasting,and improving the science of transportation planning and engineering projects.Based on the National Natural Science Foundation of China’s general project(52072044),based on the actual situation and engineering needs of the development of intercity transportation in urban agglomerations in my country,this article first reviews the current research status of spatial connection theories and travel distribution models at home and abroad,and proposes to link spatial connections Intensity introduces the research ideas of travel distribution model.Summarize the types and characteristics of urban agglomerations,expound the connotation and spatial scope of intercity travel,analyze the characteristics of intercity travel from three aspects: travel demand scale,travel purpose,and time-space distribution,and compare them with urban travel.Analyze the connotation of intercity travel distribution in urban agglomerations,and explore the influencing factors and mechanism of intercity travel distribution.On the basis of summarizing and analyzing the connotation,characteristics and calculation model of spatial connection,the necessity of introducing spatial connection intensity in the prediction of intercity travel distribution in urban agglomerations is explained.The structural equation model is introduced to evaluate city quality from multiple aspects,and then calculate the strength of basic spatial connection between cities.The concept of multi-mode spatial connection of urban agglomerations is proposed,and the spatial connection is refined into three types: business connection,tourism connection,and other connections,and corresponding models are established to solve them.The spatial connection strength is introduced as a parameter into the dual-constrained gravity model,and the prediction method of the travel distribution of different activity modes in urban agglomerations is studied from four aspects:travel generation prediction,travel ratio acquisition of each mode,travel distribution calculation,and model verification.Finally,taking the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration as a case,the travel distribution model constructed in this paper is used to predict the distribution of intercity travel.The prediction results are compared with the measured values and the traditional model prediction values,which verifies the accuracy and effectiveness of the model in this paper.