| Water is an important component of the nature, substance, and is the most active elements in the environment. Water circulation system is a huge system of natural water resources, the exploitation of the water resources, be able to get the meteoric recharge in constant exploitation, supply and consumption, restore the circulation, and can continue to supply human use and meet ecological the need for balancing.Beijing is located in the serious water shortage, according to the United Nations, are extremely dry areas. Especially since the1990s, the lack of water is even more serious, long-term over-exploitation of water resources has led to deterioration of the surface, groundwater environment, reduce the amount of water the strategic reserve, the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and other issues. Beijing in recent years, the introduction of water-saving policies, the per capita water consumption is a decreasing trend. But along with economic development, population growth and should be ranked city building, any contingent imminent issue of water resources in Beijing.Risks of water resources has been a troubled social event. In recent years, the impact of climate change and the economic and social development, water resources of various risks worsening water risk research and more attention. Correct risk assessment of water resource calculation for the government department of water administration decision-making based on scientific management, the guiding rational allocation of water resources and the efficient use to be the key to solve the problem. Raised during the many models and evaluation methods have their pros and cons. The analysis from the macro system risk, the risk assessment of water resources issues.This paper analyzes the system risk, the risk assessment of water resources issues. First of all, through qualitative analysis, from subjective in to find the risk factors, and quantitative analysis, correlation analysis, given the size ranking of risk factors. The analysis found that the main risk factor in turn agricultural water, exotic tune the amount of water, industrial water, precipitation, and the tertiary industry and life water, recycled water and by the population, management systems, climate, surface runoff.Secondly, given the definition of the risk of introducing a risk matrix, which can be calculated risk value. Range method to calculate the risk value of the scale, and then grading. By multiple linear regression to determine the total water resources of the formula, the formula to determine the degree of loss. Analysis of this formula, derived risk factor regulation. In general, the risk is I level up, but,1980,1981,1989,1992,1993,1999,2000risk level in grade V GDP loss caused very serious. With economic development, GDP total, due to the lack of water caused by the loss can not be ignored.Again, the forecast of the total water consumption and total water resources factor, thus the total water consumption and total water resources predictive value. While doing other predictions, which can verify the correctness of the model in many ways to answer this question.All fitting forecast model checking, and found good test effect with the2009value. The analysis shows that in grade Ⅱ2010risk, risk value, GDP losses, the risk to grasp the degree is for10.9,5860.5billion,45.3%;2011risk in III level, the risk value, GDP losses, risk grasp the degree11.1,6511,61.3%in2012, the risk is III level, the risk value, GDP losses, risk grasp the degree were11.3,7183.3,61.3%, the overall situation is not optimistic.Finally, by reference to a lot of papers and related materials, combined with the calculation and prediction of the papers given recommendations. |
PDF Full Text Request