Rapid Analysis And Forcast Of Wheel Loader’s Reliability

With the development of Engineering machinery, The competition changed from the price war to the competition of product quality.At the same time, the early accumulation of product’s warranty data, using network and the popularity of computer makes we have accumulated a large number of true and detailed data.all make it’s posssible to improve our product by data analysis.In this paper, I tried to through the data analisys of host and main parts of wheel loader, the main product of our company, statistics failure rate and it’s trend in warranty period, summarized the trend of different parts and compare the trend prediction method.First, I simple introduce the structure of wheel loader and our data classification method. the way we statistical wheel loader’s warranty failure rate and theway we get fault rate trend. According to the statistical data, the calculation results show that in the warranty period, the failure rate of host and mainparts of wheel loader have obvious regularity. According to the two polynomial fitting on failure rate trend, the vast majority of components failure rate with degree (value) more than illustrate the warranty failure rate completely with two degree polynomial curve.Secondly, according to the development of machine failure rate trend in history, forcast from early failure rate, get a result and compare with actual failure rates, analysis the difference from the two trend.At the same time, when the parts quality trend changed, according to the continuity of fault rate increase, statistical early failure rate and it’s development trend forcast the final result of the whole warranty period, compare with actual data, to carry on the feasibility from early failure for late failure rate.Finally, analysis the fact which could have impact on the fault rate,such as seasonal, users, conditions and regionals, according to the actual historical impact, pointed out which must be serious considered when making a failure rate forcast.