Research On Risk Analysis And Assessment Of Building Engineering Design

By the research of domestic and international risk management of building engineering design,the CSPCF model of building engineering design for risk management of total life cycle is founded according to the process of building engineering design.This model includes five design stages:conceive design、schematic design preliminary design、 construction drowing design and finish.First of all,this dissertation sums up41risk factors of the building engineering design through the findings of the survey and analysis of relevant literature; it also statistics on the establishment condition of the risk management measures and training about the relevant departments of buiding engineering design.41risk factors are sorted on the average weighting method,thus the top ten risk factors of building engineering design as well as the degree of risk about the five design stages are brought forward.Secondly, we carry out the risk assessment based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of AHP. The evaluation matrixs of the Analytic Hierarchy Process are founded according to expert advice、the statistical questionnaire data and literature summarizes,thus the weight of each risk comes out; further by constructing fuzzy evaluation matrixs,the qualitative analysis of building engineering design risk comes to the quantitative analysis.we conclude that the membership degree of of the building engineering design risk is high,so as to provide the basis for the subsequent risk countermeasures research.Thirdly, we use Bayesian network risk analysis method in the risk assessment of building engineering design to solve the problem of less building engineering design data as well as data collection difficulties. Through expert analysis and personal conclusion,we establish Bayesian network model based on participant factors and explore the steps in risk analysis based on Bayesian network preliminarily.Finally, in order to make the management of building engineering design risk much more effectively, the author summarizes four practical risk management countermeasures so as to achieve the purpose of controlling costs, speeding up the progress, guaranteeing quality and reducing accidents.In summary, this paper identifies41risk factors、the five stages of the total life cycle risk evaluation function、fuzzy evaluation matrix, establishs Bayesian network risk assessment model initially and summarizes four risk management countermeasures.