Warning Ranking For Blowout Risk Of Down Hole Operation

With national economic increase, the more energy is needed. Oil and gas has become an indispensable part in the energy sector. During oil exploring procedure, the working procedures are various and the operations are complex that lead to equipments, workers and working condition suffer risk. Blowout is a catastrophic accident. OILCORP want to avoid blowout accident. We should establish warning system for blowout risk of down hole operation, which can effectively avoid or reduce the loss. Through assessing the static risk and dynamic risk of blowout, we can determine the risk levels and early warming signals are given to the manager as soon as possible. The effective measures will be taken to control or prevent the risk. It takes steps to ensure security and improve work efficiency. The blowout risk early warning based on warning system for blowout risk of down hole operation for design and application.Combined with the idea of continued risk management, The thesis supported by Daqing Down Hole Operating Company is that warning ranking for blowout risk of down hole operation is studied in the method though Collecting, reading and analyzing the latest information of blowout risk of down hole operation in domestic and foreign .This paper impersonality designs risk identification table to blowout combining the fact of three high-risk operations(operation, fracturing, remedial well treatment) and analysis the risk factors. The expert’s advice list is designed which about risk factors.This paper based on computed values, expert’s advice list and expert opinions to analyze the static and dynamic risk factors of blowout by means of improved Delphi method and risk preferential analysis. System of evaluation and assessment standard system of blowout are established. Early warning hierarchical model of static risk of blowout are established which according to modern mathematics rationale and ALARP.This paper put individual risk forward to design early warning hierarchical model of dynamic risk of blowout. The determinant factors are selected which contain probability of accident, ignition probability, wind velocity, exposure probability of people and the chances of people dying. These factors are used comprehensively to evaluate the dynamic risk of blowout. It can counterbalance that early warning hierarchical model of static risk of blowout ignore the dynamic risk of blowout. This dynamic or static risk level model of evaluation has the operation and practicality. The early warning hierarchical model of static or dynamic risk of blowout can be used alone or be used together. At the last, produced wells and untapped well are selected which count of 20 on the empirical research. They are evaluated scientific and systematic. The early warning hierarchical model of static or dynamic risk of blowout can be adjusted and improved on the basis of results. The results make clear that good effects obtained in spot application have expressed that this technique system has good social benefits. If Down Hole Operating Company can use the early warning hierarchical model of blowout risk rightly and safety control measures are made, the company can avoid accidents effectively.