The CIA’s Evaluation On Sino-Soviet Relations And U.S. Policy Toward China (1950-1969)

Intelligence agencies has an important influence on the formulationof a country’s policy. In the United States, CIA and other intelligenceagencies were ordered to write special reports on some major events orissues, and they were submitted to the president, the military and relevantimportant departments. Those reports are the basis of the development ofU.S. Government foreign policy and have an important impact on U.S.diplomacy policy. Sino-Soviet relations is a priority of the U.S.intelligence collection and analysis. This paper focuses on U.S.intelligence agencies assessments on Sino-Soviet relations collection,analysis and evaluation. Compare with the similarities and differencesbetween the estimates on Sino-Soviet relations of U.S. intelligencedepartments, mainly CIA,and Sino-Soviet relations in practice. Andmake a further analysis of the basic concerns on Sino-Soviet relations,and the changes in perception of Sino-Soviet relations from1950to1969 in United States.With the victory of Communist Party of China in Chinese mainlandand the establishment of Sino-Soviet alliance,U.S. first concerns WhetherChina was the satellite state of Soviet Union. After a long timeobservation and analysis,the conclusion was negative. Even so,theintelligence from CIA and other departments still showed the deepen andconsolidation of Sino-Soviet alliance. Meanwhile, CIA’s intelligenceanalysis also paid attention to the information about Sino-Sovietdifferences, and make a great deal, or even a comprehensive analysis onpotentially divisive factor in Sino-Soviet relations. Although CIA foresawthe possible and even inevitable differences between China and Soviet,also noticed the bifurcation points and contradictory factors. But until theend of1960, CIA judged the Sino-Soviet relations might be broken down.It can be said that CIA’s reaction was slow. From the report of CIA,wecould also see the border conflicts between China and Soviet, especiallythe treasured island event in1969, raised the American worry about thewar between China and Soviet. Also in this year, Senior government officials in China and the United States began to transform the foreignpolicy and sought to suppress the Soviet in common, which started animportant adjustment of international relations in East Asia.