Raised Consumption Than Research

Dependency ratio is an important index which is used to indicate the impact of population aging on society and economics, policy makers and related researchers usually draw conclusions according to the dependency ration. However,the existing dependency ration has mainly two problems. Firstly, the estimation of labor force does not correspond to reality. Secondly, the dependency ratio’s homogeneity assumption ignores the difference of dependency burden caused by different consumption models featured by old-age, children and adults. So, the existing dependency ratio cannot reflect the society’s true dependency burden. In order to better understand the social dependency burden, this paper is going to consider the diversities of old, children and adults, from the perspective of consumption, to employ consumption dependency ration to measure China’s actual dependency burden level on the basis of family consumption research. And compute China’s consumption of different years and provinces combining the actual demographic data and compare it with the existing dependency ratio of population. At last, through deep analysis of the factors that affect the change of future consumption dependency ratio, we found out that population age structure, consumption needs weight of different raising objects, pension level and living arrangement of aging population are the main reasons for the change. In future, old-age consumption dependency ratio will rise rapidly and cause severe old-age dependency burden because of the population aging and the eruption of old-age spending power. From the angle of consumption dependency ratio, to cope with future aggravated old-age consumption dependency burden we suggest that government should set moderate social security level to guide the reasonable consumption of age population, encourage family security mode to reduce pension cost and take advantage of international human resource to transfer the old-age raising burden.