A Study Of The Effects Of Population Age Structure Change On The Consumption Pattern In China

At present, our country is in a crucial period of reform, the problem of high economic growth rate and low consumption rate has been on for several years.The implementation of "one-child policy" for more than30years had a remarkable effect, the proportion of children is reducing, and the proportion of elderly population is growing, the aging population problem is becoming increasingly prominent. By reading the relevant literature, selecting in perspective of the age structure of population, this paper emphasizes on the effects of changes in population age structure on consumption patterns from theoretical and empirical factors. Then by lateral and longitudinal contrast, the paper introduces present situation of consumption rate, we find that the consumption rate of our country is obviously lower than the average level of the world.Be based on the classical literature review, introduction of demographic transition and classical theory of consumption function, the paper firstly predicts the population age structure of2013-2031odd-numbered years in our country according to the statistical data of1990-2012odd-numbered years and the method of component data dimension reduction analysis to our country. We find that China’s current population aging problem is so evident and continuing to exist in a long time of the future with a growing trend.In order to study the effects of population age structure changes on the consumption level, We use the provincial panel data from2000-2012of our country and fixed-effect model, we find that young dependency ratio has a positive influence on the residents’consumption level and to10%significance level the coefficient is significant while old dependency ratio has a negative impact on residents’ consumption level, but the coefficient is not significant, first-lagged consumption rate has a positive influence on the residents’consumption level and to1%significance level the coefficient is significant, it indicates that our country has a stable consumption habit. Moreover, we use the age structure of population of our country’s2000-2012time series data and eight kinds of goods time series data, by the Grey Analysis Method in the Grey System Theory, studying the population age structure change has an influence on the consumption structure respectively. The results show that both urban residents and rural residents young population rate has the biggest effect on the food expenditure, working age population has the biggest impact on clothing spending. To urban residents old population rate has maximum impact on health care expenditure and to rural residents aging population rate has a biggest influence on living expenditure. Both urban and rural residents’working age population rate has minimal impact on spending of transportation and communication. To urban residents children’s population proportion has minimal impact on spending of transportation and communication and to rural residents young population proportion has minimal impact on household equipment spending, to urban residents old population rate has minimal impact on sundry goods and services and to rural residents old population rate has minimal impact on health care spending except others. The paper analysis the effects of population age structure on the consumption habit qualitatively.The paper conducted a comprehensive summary about the impact of changes in population age structure on China’s consumer pattern, then put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions, including both macro proposal and micro level advices on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical research.