Influence Of Population Age Structure On Rural Residents’ Consumption

Since the implementation of reform and opening up policy,China’s economy has grown rapidly,and has become the second largest economy in the world.However,In recent years,as the three driving force for economic development,the exports have been squeezed,investment plays a role in the middle,consumption is the driving force for the economy to maintain rapid development.In the background of the new normal economy,study the factors that influence the decrease of the effective demand and the decline of the economic growth is of great significance to improve the rate of economic development and break the plight of slow growth in consumption in China.The rapid advancement of family planning policy and urbanization process has brought significant changes in the age structure of population in China.Because of the different age levels of the population has its unique otherness of consumption,the change of population age structure change will inevitably lead to consumer demand.So,this paper takes population age structure as a starting point,from two aspects of theoretical and empirical research on the age structure of the population on the two dimensions of consumption level and consumption structure,so as to provide basis and reference for future policy making.Taking the age structure of population as the breakthrough point to study the influence of population age structure on the consumption level and consumption structure from two aspects of theory and demonstration in the hope of providing a foundation of formulation of future policies.First,this paper reviews the literature on the relationship between the changes of population structure and the household consumption as a theoretical support for subsequent research.At the same time,this paper constructs the theoretical framework of the population age structure on the basis of the classical theory。 Next,this paper analyzes the present situation and trend of population age structure and consumption from 2004 to 2015.On the basis of the above analysis,this paper makes a comparative analysis of the present situation and trend of consumption and the age structure of the population in the eastern,central and western regions.Secondly,this paper selects the relevant indicators and builds a reasonable panel data model,using the GLS estimation method to study the effect of the population age structure on the consumption of rural residents of 31 provinces,municipalities from national and regional levels from 2004 to 2015.The analysis of the country level shows that the increase of the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio s significantly improve the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents.The empirical study on the influence of the population age structure on the consumption structure of the residents suggests that,the child dependency ratio has a positive effect on the survival type of consumption,and the elderly dependency ratio has a negative effect on the enjoyment of consumption and the development of consumption.The results of the analysis at the regional level suggest that there is a positive influence of the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio on the consumption level in the eastern region.While in the central and western regions,the estimated coefficient of child rearing is negative,and the coefficient of estimation of the elderly dependency ratio is positive.In the influence of population age structure on consumption structure,there is a negative correlation between children’s dependency ratio and survival consumption,which has a positive correlation with enjoyment consumption and development consumption and there is a positive correlation between the elderly dependency ratio and the survival type of consumption and the development of consumption,which has a negative correlation with the enjoyment of consumption in the eastern region;There is a positive correlation between the dependency ratio of children and the consumption of survival and the development of consumption,which has a negative correlation with the enjoyment of consumption and there is a negative correlation between the elderly dependency ratio and the survival type of consumption and the development of consumption,which has a positive correlation with the enjoyment of consumption in the central region;There is a positive correlation between the child dependency ratio and the consumption of survival and the development of consumption,which has a positive correlation with the enjoyment of consumption and there is a negative correlation between the elderly dependency ratio and the survival type of consumption,which has a positive correlation with the enjoyment of consumption and the development of consumption in the western region.Finally,this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions based on the theoretical analysis and empirical results: Adjust the population policy properly,and formulate appropriate policies;Develop a variety of income channels to improve the income level of residents;Improve the rural social security system to reduce the uncertainty of rural residents;Develop the rural elderly consumer market to stimulate consumer demand for the elderly;Increase the proportion of high consumption,and promote the transformation and upgrading of consumption structure.