The Influence Of The Change Of Population Age Structure On The Resident's Housing Consumption Under The Two-child Policy:2017-2050

At present,China is at an important stage of demographic transition.The number of children is gradually decreasing and the problem of aging is increasing.“Comprehensive two-child" is an important step for the government to adjust the birthing policy which will have a major impact on the future population and social development in China.Under the background of the "Comprehensive two-child" policy,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the impact of changes in the population age structure in the country on housing demand in China.Based on the data of the sixth national census in 2010 and the annual data from 2001 to 2016 of the "China Statistical Yearbook" it forecasts the future age structure of the population.The results show that the implementation of the "Comprehensive two-child" policy will help raise children in China.As the ratio rises,the aging degree has been reduced,but it doesn't mean to stop the general trend of population aging in China.We use the dynamic panel GMM to estimate the impact of population age structure on housing consumption,while using lag-phase variables for outcomes of practice were been tested,and the estimation results showed that the housing price soaring in China in recent years has nothing to do with the age structure of the population,but the age factor of the population is reduced to the consumption area of the housing;at once there is a significant negative correlation between the child dependency ratio and the housing consumption area in China,and obviously there is no clear relation between elderly dependency ratio and housing consumption area.As the "comprehensive two-child" policy is been promulgated,the children's dependency ratio will continue to rise when compared to policy unchanged.The implementation of the policy will help to reduce the sales area of China's commercial housing in the long run.From the perspective of population structure housing prices in the future in China no longer have a rapidly rising demand base.The government should actively adopt measures to encourage births and at the same time ensure the healthy development of the housing market in China by means of various approaches.