Price Of Commercial Residential Buildings In Xi’an Forecasts And The Changing Trend Analysis

Since the housing reform since1998, along with the sustained and rapid economicgrowth, residential real estate market has also been a very good development. Thedevelopment of the residential market has not only improved the living conditions ofpeople, still largely contributed to the development of the national economy. Followedby housing price problem has been widespread concern. Housing prices is determinedby the relationship between supply and demand at a certain extent. So analysis andforecasting of housing prices should begin from the relationship between supply anddemand and its influencing factors of the residential market. Then through the processand results of the analysis and forecasting, propose control measures for the residentialmarket in Xi’an, which has some theoretical meaning and practical significance.This paper first analyzes the basic characteristics of the residential market as wellas the static formation mechanism and dynamic formation mechanism of the residentialmarket price, found that housing prices are determined by the relative change of themarket supply and demand, and change with the changing relationship of supply anddemand. Accordingly, the paper analyzes the supply and demand and its influencefactors of the residential market in Xi’an. Through the establishment of the variableparameter model of the Xi’an housing market supply and demand, draw that the mainfactors affecting the reality of supply is the interest rates and the potential supply ofconstruction area, the main factors affecting the demand is per capita disposable income,then used iterative algorithm to calculate the elasticity of the impact on the amount ofsupply and demand. The results showed that in the dynamic elasticity of housingsupply，the flexibility of the construction area and interest rate is more significant andstable; in the dynamic elasticity of demand for homes, the per capita disposable income elasticity is the most obvious.Then predicted the amount of the supply and demand of the residential market inXi’an according to the variable parameter model, and then predict the price of theresidential market in Xi’an in the next three years. Analysis residential price volatilityand the dynamic relationship between the equilibrium price by constructing theresidential property market correction Cobweb Model. The analysis results show thatXi’an residential market is the convergence of the cobweb model, but in the next fewyears, house prices would further deviate from the equilibrium price.Finally, based on the analysis of the cobweb model, this paper has set up theregulation policy laboratory of Xi’an residential market and proposed the controlmeasures recommended of residential market in Xi’an, Include: increase the effectivesupply of housing; establish a sound second-hand housing market, and guide a rationalhousing consumption concept and so on.