Risk Assessment Methods Research Of Coal Shipping System Based On The Six-dimensional Uneven Efficacy Function With The Example Of Huizhou Power Plant

Along with our country’s rapid economic development, the contradiction between the supply and the demand of electricity has become increasingly prominent. With the electric power industry adjusting the development key point to coastal area step by step, the coastal power plants will persistently increase. Therefore, the safety of the seaborne coal will become extremely important, which not only can influence the electricity supply and the profits of the power plant, but also can affect the normal operation of national economy.Because the shipping industry is a high-risk industry which is restricted and affected by various factors, so the future of the seaborne coal will have more uncertainty and complexity under the context of the intensive market competition. Thus, how to use scientific means to identify and evaluate the risk of the seaborne coal in an all-round scale, objectively and clearly appears extraordinary important.Six-dimension disequilibrium efficacy function is a method based on the multi-dimension and characteristic of the risk evaluation, incorporating the risk probability, the influences of risk on cost, quality and progress, the risk of predictability and the risk of controllability into evaluation effort. Thus, Evaluation criteria for six-dimension disequilibrium efficacy function and each efficacy function are established. By comprehensive evaluation, the comprehensive comment is made about the risk factor and then has carried on their important orders about risk factor, all of which lead to the manager consider and manage risk in terms of the overall situation.This thesis firstly introduced the risk, the risk management and the six-dimension disequilibrium efficacy function briefly, which layed a theoretical foundation for the following seaborne coal system risk assessment. This paper, taking Huizhou’s power station as an example, analyzed the current situation of the Huizhou’s power station and the risk of the seaborne coal system. According to the characteristic of the operational risk of the seaborne coal system in Huizhou’s power plant, the risk evaluation index system of seaborne coal in Huizhou’s coastal power plant was constructed in marine transport, unloading port and macro environment through referring to lots of literature and consulting relevant experts. Then the thesis selected the six-dimension disequilibrium efficacy function to evaluate the risk of the seaborne coal in Huizhou’s power plant. By comparing with the evaluate result of the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation, merits and demerits of the six-dimension disequilibrium efficacy function had been obtained and making clear its effectiveness on the risk assessment. Finally, the main achievement and the existing problems of this paper had been discussed. Meanwhile, the future research directions are also put forward.