Study On Risk Analysis And Evaluation For Oil-tanker Investment

With the rapid economic growth in China, the consumption of the petroleum further increased. Oil-tanker has been the priority of the international oil transportation because of its advantage, such as powerful transport ability, high carry capacity, low freight, long navigation and so on. Oil-tanker investment activities of enterprises is the important measures to expand the size of the fleet tanker, improve the core competitiveness. However, the tanker investment often accompanied by huge capital flows, and the oil-tanker investment is influenced by the international economic situation and international trade volume, it also has some characters such as huge investment risks and long investment recovery period. So it is essential to carry out risk-analysis for oil-tanker project with the application of scientific venture-analysis methods. But how to distinguish all kinds of risks in oil-tanker, then estimate the venture, and make decisions at last, all of these are the problems that oil-tanker shipping companies must face and solve.This paper first reviews the domestic and foreign enterprises and on the tanker oil tanker investment risk research, and analyze the oil-tanker investment connotation, tanker investment market and tanker investment financing way. Secondly, analyze the oil-tanker investment risk, briefly introduces the meaning and the tanker risk investment risk causes, which lay the theoretical foundation for risk analysis in the following sections. And then put forward the tanker investment risk evaluation theory, further analyze the oil tanker investment risks involved, and establish DEA tanker investment risk evaluation model based on fuzzy theory. Finally, take the tanker enterprise multiple alternative project as an example, apply this model to the tanker investment risk evaluation, to verify the validity of this model. And compare the evaluation results with the actual situation, proposes the risk control schemeThis paper systemically introduces investment risk theory of oil-tanker shipping companies, combining the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and DEA, build DEA tanker investment risk evaluation model based on the fuzzy theory, and comprehensively does the research on evaluation problems of oil-tanker investment risk.