Study On Risk Analysis And Evaluation For Oil-tanker Investment

Oil-tanker is one of the important ocean conveyances, which has been the priority of the international oil transportation because of its advantages, such as powerful transport ability, high carry capacity, low freight, long navigation and so on. As the material foundation of oil-tanker shipping companies who keeps operating, and as well as the vital precondition of companies' existence, the investment activity of oil-tanker often goes with the huge cash-flow, it also influenced largely by the world economy and international trade, meantime, it has some characters such as long investment recovery period, many uncertain factors, and diversity of invest-capital sources. So it's essential to carry out risk-analysis for the oil-tanker project with the application of scientific venture-analysis methods. But how to design the oil-tanker shipping companies reasonably, and how to distinguish all kinds of risks in oil-tanker investment projects, then estimate the venture, then evaluate it, and make decisions at last, all of these are the problems that oil-tanker shipping companies must face and solve.This paper systemically introduces investment risk theories of oil-tanker shipping companies, and comprehensively does the research on evaluation problems of oil-tanker investment risk from two different points of view by means of Certainty Equivalent Coefficient Method and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. First, connotation and financing sources of oil-tanker investment, background and signification of strategy about shipping only by national tankers which is brought forward, are elaborated. Second, meanings and basic characters are analyzed, characters, reasons formed of oil-tanker investment risk, and correlation between risk and profits are discussed, which lay the theoretical foundation for risk analysis of oil-tanker investment in the following sections. Third, oil-tanker investment risk is identified and evaluated, the key factors comprehensively reflecting oil-tanker investment risk are selected, and risk evaluation models of oil-tanker investment based on Certainty Equivalent Coefficient Method and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process are built. Finally, aimed at an instance about oil-tanker investment of oil-tanker shipping companies, the validity of risk evaluation models of oil-tanker investment built in this paper, is validated.