M County Government Debt Risk Early Warning Case Analysis

Along with the social economic rapid development, the city continues to expand the scale of the government’s debt scale is expanding continually. As the crisis affect economic recovery period after the main trouble, the world’s major economies debt crisis and debt caused wide public concern. Although long-term laws in our country since the local government shall not debt, but China’s local, local government at all levels are long for the most different levels of debt, has become a fact of life in time if not the place to debt risk early warning, prevention and control, is a possible outbreak of local debt crisis, which affects the development of local economy. Therefore, local debt risk not only on China’s economic security a threat, and against the stability of the society.With the government’s economic and political system reform, the local government economic behavior field has a lot of, but the local government debt warning system of the comprehensive research of depth is not enough, and with practice degree is not enough, and no corresponding and local government are associated with the actual economic activity applied research. This not only against the local government in conformity with local economic construction of the actual situation of the early warning mechanism, the more against the local government to solve problems. The author based on the above the weak link in the case analysis. Debt risk early warning system not only can increase the risk of local government crisis consciousness, still can make the government’s debt crisis was found in the bud, leaving the government enough time to take effective measures to deal with the crisis, to avoid the financial crisis, to maintain the healthy development of the social economy, have very important sense.M local governments at the county level as the basic unit power, money relatively weak, and due to a variety of reasons to be borrowed, debt scale expanding quickly. This paper to M county in recent years local financial data as the foundation, first summarizes M county place the basic situation of the debt risk, and analyses the M county, the composition of the local government debt, M county of local government debt cause and effect, then based on the above-mentioned problems, from the macroscopic Angle discusses the debt risk early warning system construction of the design idea, should according to the relevant design principle design for this area of debt risk early warning system process. Selection for this area of economic indicators, and constructs the execution system, by using multi-level fuzzy analysis method to establish debt warning system. By using case after form, has been established through the local government debt risk early warning system analysis M county local government debt risk status, check the risks to the province and its level of debt sustainability, and the county government debt of M to avert forward the constructive Suggestions.This paper due to material limited, only the M county local government debt risk simulation warning, but China is a large country, governments around the world situation is different, this paper local government debt risk early warning model is suitable for all the local government, pending further study, but at least this paper expounds local government debt risk early warning route choice, hope to promote local government debt risk early warning research be role.