Research On The Second Ring Road Traffic Volume Forecasting Of Xilinhot City

Because of the economic development and the large-scale gathering of thepopulation in recent years, Xilinhot City had further expanded the scale. New urbanareas has begun the construction. In order to ensure the orderly development of theconstruction and the convenient application of all enterprises and institutions andresidents, People’s Government of Xilinhot decided to construct the Second RingRoad. In order to design the Second Ring Road more practicality, the future of theSecond Ring Road traffic growth trends and developments must be predicted.To adapt to the rapid economic and social development requirements of XilinhotCity, the paper is based on the practical situation. Fisrstly the general situation of theproject areas had been comprehensively analyzed. It includes historical evolution,regional location, administrative divisions, geographic profile and natural resource.Analyze and select the Second Ring Road traffic forecasting model of Xilinhot City.Four-stage method was selected, which includes trip production and attraction, tripdistribution, traffic mode and traffic assignment. The four stages respectively are typeanalysis method, dual constraint gravity model, transfer curve model and stochasticuser equilibrium assignment model. Analyze economic development status of XilinhotCity and use second-order exponential smoothing model and third-order exponentialsmoothing model to predict gross domestic product. The final result is their averagevalue. Analyze the population of Xilinhot City and use linear regression model andexponential model to predict the population. The results show that the population ofXilinhot City will grow steadily in the future.Finally predict the Second Ring Road traffic volume of Xilinhot City. Firstlydetermine the forecasting target year, forecasting content and prediction methods.According to the survey of traffic structure predict the proportion of all modes oftransportation at the project areas in the future. Then use four-stage methodrespectively predicted traffic in the region and cross-boundary traffic of the SecondRing Road. Finally the forecast results were obtained. According to the forecastresults predict the service level of the second ring road. Through analyzing the basiccapacity, possible capacity and design capacity their computation models wereconstructed. Based on the design capacity and the peak hour traffic of various sectionspredict the service level of the second ring road and provide scientific advices for theroad design.