Research On Forecasting The Urban Road Freight Traffic And The Freight Volume Of Logistics Parks

With the continuous development of economic globalization,and the significant trend of economic integration and group,optimizing the configuration of resources and adjusting to the industrial layout make the services productively,in particular the modern logistics growing,the modern logistics industry is becoming an important force which drives country or region economic development.As an important logistics node of organization and management in the modern logistics system, Logistics Park is an important breakthrough and the basis points for the development of modern logistics industry in our country.The construction of logistics parks has an important positive significance to urban economic development,transport and the flow channels.In view of the problems of "pre-market demand for logistics analysis is not clear,and logistics volume measurement is not fine",paper is going to take some discussion and research about forecasting the urban road freight and freight volume of logistics parks.The paper establishes a methodology of forecasting the urban road freight and freight volume of logistics parks.The prediction of urban road freight is the presupposition to get the freight volume of logistics parks.Firstly,the paper forecasts the urban road freight overall the city with the combination forecasting model based on the use of multiple linear regression prediction model and gray prediction model. Secondly,the paper forecasts the volume of important cargo sub-category by quantitative and qualitative analysis.Thirdly,the paper determines the index of cargo sub-category by methods such as expert advice,mathematical statistics,etc,to get the freight volume of overall logistics nodes and some important cargo sub-category. Finally,taking into account the competition with other logistics nodes,such as Logistics center,freight station,etc,the paper evaluates the market share of all urban logistics perks by AHP,to get the freight volume of logistics parks.In the background of the actual situation of logistics industry in Chang Chun city, the paper predicts the freight volume of logistics parks overall the city,verifies the feasibility of the methods.