During The Period Of "twelfth Five-year" Rural Population In Guizhou Consumption Analysis And Prediction

Guizhou is located in the west of China where the degree of its economic development is lowcomparably. How to develop the economy of Guizhou and raise people’s standard of livingespecially the rural living standard, which has to be the hot topic of the people of all ethnic groupsand different media there. The CPC Guizhou Provincial Committee had passed the TwelfthFive-Year Plan about Guizhou national economy and social development in 2010. The report putforward the arrangement of system and lasting effect mechanism about national economy andpeople’s livelihood. If we want to achieve the above goals fruitfully, it is necessary to analysis anddiscusses the consumption status of rural people who are majority of Guizhou’s population.Because it not only matters the achievement of Twelfth Five-Year Plan of economic developmentgoals, but it even matters the promotion of rural people’s living standard in our province.Therefore, taking active measures, promoting the consumption demand of rural people and realizebenign interaction of the consumption promotion and economic growth, these are all veryimportant to the economic development in Guizhou.This article investigates and forecasts the consumption status of the majority rural people byinvestigating cases and establishing economic models. What’s more, based on that, together withthe real circumstances of rural population’s consumptions the article puts forward economicdevelopment policy suggestions which relate to the consumption demand of our province’s ruralpeople, for reference only.The full article has five chapters; the specific essay arrangement is as follows:The first chapter is preface part which is a simple introduction of this full article. It mainlyelaborates the background and purpose, research method and the meaning of this selected articletopic, the research framework and innovation, the relevant research degree and remarks in and outour country.The second chapter is theory basis of this article and a theory support of following essayresearch. It includes the relevant concept of consumption demand, consumption statistics andconsumption construction and so on. Mastering this part can offer certain theory basis and analysistools for the analysis and anticipation of future consumption demand.The third chapter，first of all, elaborates and analyzes Guizhou rural people’s incomecondition and consumption condition; it confers the compulsory factors of rural people’sconsumption demand which is led by Guizhou’s consumption environment. and then fromdifferent angles like“agriculture”“system”“Provencal circumstances”, establishing fewprinciples of Guizhou province rural people’s consumption demand respectively.The forth chapter，ARMA model as the analysis tool the chapter, which uses statistics dates that the dates are Guizhou rural people’s average living consumption expenditure during fifteenyears from 1995 to 2009 in Guizhou province to be sample date, these establish and analyze ruralpeople’s consumption condition during Twelfth Five-Year Plan.The fifth chapter, first of all, from different angles like“people”“land”“system”, carrying outcompulsory factors which limit the promotion of rural people’s consumption demand; Then,according to the analysis results which are led by Guizhou rural people’s consumption demand,together with the basis of consumption demand principles, this part puts forward easygoingstrategy and suggestions.The sixth chapter is the summary and the prospects of the essay.