Oil Refining And Ethylene Supply And Demand Balance Research In The Coastal Area Of China

As an important force to promote industrialization、urbanization and the growth of national economy, the contribution of petroleum and chemical industry is even more prominent in China. The status and role of oil refining and ethylene in the petroleum and chemical industry leading position in the national economy are increasingly significant, the level of oil refining and ethylene、the strength of supply capacity also become an important indicator to measure the degree of modernization of petroleum and chemical industry in China. However, with the growth of oil consumption and the rising of oil prices, China’s petroleum and chemical industry especially coastal areas petroleum and chemical industry facing the prominent contradictions and problems in the development. Coupled with the development of petroleum and chemical industry started relatively late, the study theory is not mature enough、research the petroleum and chemical industry commonly used qualitative analysis. Therefore, research the balance about supply and demand of oil refining and ethylene, analysis the contradictions and problems faced by the petroleum and chemical industry, solve the the contradictions and problems in the petroleum and chemical industry development process become an important theoretical significance and far-reaching practical significance that to achieve the coordinated and health between the petroleum chemical industry and the national economy.Based on analysis the development status of coastal petroleum chemical industry, described the course of development about the petroleum and chemical industry firstly, spatial distribution pattern about the base and park of the coastal petroleum and chemical industry, summary the characteristics of the development of the coastal petroleum and chemical industry briefly, screened representative of petroleum and chemical products oil refining and ethylene to highlight the future development trends of the petroleum and chemical industry. Use the State Space Model Forecast establish the demand forecasting model of national oil、ethylene, quantitative predict of the "12th Five-Year" period demand for oil refining and ethylene; summary the "12th Five-Year" period of China’s total oil refining and ethylene production capacity, analysis the balance between supply and demand of oil refining and ethylene, analysis the product and structure of supply and demand imbalance in the development, find the reasons that cause imbalance about supply and demand and solve it, analysis the potential threat that caused by the supply and demand imbalance. Finally, for the problems and pitfalls, put forward to the core of suggestions that promoting the development in the environment、health、coordination between coastal economy and the petroleum and chemical industry.