The Supply-Demand Balance Analysis Method Of Coastal Chemical Transportation

As an important pillar industry in the development of national economy,petrochemical industry is of great significance to the national economic level and social development.With the rapid development of the scale and cluster of chemical industry,many chemical industrial parks are built in the coastal areas;in order to achieve our country's development goal from the great power of petroleum and petrifaction to a more powerful country,the”13th Five-Year Plan" put forward the development focus on the upgrading of the industrial structure of petroleum and chemical industry.The prosperity of the chemical industry has stimulated the development of the coastal water transport market as an important support,a large amount of new capacity swarming into the market,and the expansion of transport capacity leads to the increasingly severe contradiction between supply and demand.In order to avoid vicious price competition,the phenomenon of illegal business market safety disturbing the market order of operation,it is necessary to make a reasonable and scientific evaluation of the balance between the supply of transportation capacity and the demand of freight in the coastal chemical water transport market,which helps the scientific control of chemicals coastal transportation market capacity,improving the market environment,and has an important guiding significance to improve the competitiveness of China's chemical shipping enterprise.In order to objectively evaluate the supply and demand status of China's chemical coastal waterway market,this paper analyzed and evaluated various supply and demand equilibrium states.Combined with the characteristics of chemical coastal water transportation,this paper determined the supply-demand balance index to describe the market supply and demand balance.With the historical data of China's chemical coastal water transport market from 2006 to 2016,the early warning and evaluation system of supply and demand balance of China's chemical coastal water transport market is established;the development trend of freight demand and power supply in future chemical coastal transport market is predicted by various methods,so as to estimate and evaluate the development trend of supply and demand balance in China's chemical coastal transport market;further apply the early warning evaluation system and the supply-demand balance index,combined with the prediction of future market freight demand,and predict the capacity scale of the future market to achieve the balance of supply and demand.Finally,taking China's chemical coastal shipping market as an example,this paper predicts the transport capacity of China's chemical coastal transportation market in 2020 by the established supply and demand balance evaluation method.Combined with the market status and analysis results,we can provide theoretical basis and reasonable suggestion for the regulation policy of transportation capacity and the development decision of related enterprises,ensure the rationality and effectiveness of capacity regulation and market development,and ultimately achieve reasonable allocation of transport resources,so that China's chemical coastal shipping market will develop healthily and steadily.