| Shanghai-Hangzhou high-speed railway opened to traffic in2010, China’s high-speed railway mileage reached7431kilometers, ranking first in the world. High speed railway construction and operation steadily making high-speed railway has gradually become China’s railway passenger transport network framework. The construction and operation of high-speed railway rushed the traffic structure. In the new market environment, civil aviation, road, high-speed railway and rail, how to better play their own advantages, to the reasonable and sustainable development, is the need to study. This paper established system dynamics model which can simulate the real effect of high-speed rail to passenger traffic structure, applied this model to predict the trend of the traffic structure.This thesis researches are as follows:High-speed railway construction and operation of integrated transport structure of the channel affect. In passenger transport demand analysis is considered in the transportation technology economy characteristics and passenger’s own characteristics, analysis of factors influencing travel choice behavior of passengers. Different income groups, different trip purpose of passengers at different levels of passenger demand. On the basis of the analysis of influencing factors and system architecture, system dynamics model of high-speed rail passenger transport structure. Take Wuhan-Guangzhou channel as an example, application of system dynamics Vensim software, simulation and analysis of the impact of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail passenger traffic structure on the channel. Policy factors such as fares, speed, and GDP growth rate, to construct a different scenario simulation of the program obtained the passenger share rate for different modes of transportation, passenger traffic and its changes in the composition trend. For the analysis of high-speed railway passenger traffic on the structure of passenger traffic impact analysis, provide a reference. |
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